256 Birch Ave

Elsmere, DE 19805

$187,500D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · Built 1944 · Townhouse · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,512/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$983
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $73/mo
• Annual: $881/yr
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.68%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $52,500

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $188k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($881/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (19.4% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $151k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#5 in DE, #3,599 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Red Clay Consolidated School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #12 of 26 in DE (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Baltz (Austin D.) Elementary School (math 14% / reading 24%, grade F, #83 of 105 statewide, top 79%, 528 students, 0% FRL); Dupont (Alexis I.) Middle School (math 7% / reading 24%, grade F, #33 of 36 statewide, top 91%, 492 students, 0% FRL); Mckean (Thomas) High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #38 of 40 statewide, top 100%, 927 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 44% district-wide (44 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Red Clay Consolidated School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,367 units permitted in New Castle County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New Castle County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $188k implies a 422% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.7% in Elsmere — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.