1007 Avenue E

Abernathy, TX 79311

$244,900D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 179 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,295/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax + insurance: −$205
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-467/mo
• Annual: $-5,600/yr
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.17%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $68,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-467 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (33.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (47.1% below list).
• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (47.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in TX, #3,080 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Abernathy ISD (town): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #242 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Abernathy El (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 411 students, 49% FRL); Abernathy Middle (math 47% / reading 42%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 180 students, 50% FRL); Abernathy H S (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 243 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13 units permitted in Hale County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hale County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.