1007 Avenue E · Abernathy, TX 79311

$244,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 179 Days on market

Built 1960 6,752 sqft lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Located at 1007 Avenue E, this home offers a measured 1,994 square feet of livable space and has completed a thorough, full-scale renovation covering the entire home, including major mechanical systems. Updates include HVAC, electrical, plumbing, roof, windows, just refinished hardwood floors, updated flooring, and fresh interior paint, along with a fully updated kitchen featuring granite countertops and updated cabinetry. The home also features an eat-in kitchen with a dedicated dining area. All work has been completed, and the property has recently undergone a full make-ready, allowing for immediate occupancy. This home offers two distinct living areas, providing flexibility and functiona

Key facts

• Eat in kitchen
• Updated kitchen
• Private water closet

Tags

• FULL SCALE RENOVATION
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• TWO DISTINCT LIVING AREAS
• CERAMIC TILE WALK IN SHOWER
• PRIVATE WATER CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Neighborhood features include curbs, sidewalks, street lights, park, playground, and tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car) with workshop space; Driveway parking; Additional parking; On-street and off-street parking; Garage faces front
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas available; Cable available; Phone available; Underground utilities; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Updated/remodeled condition; 2-story home; Stucco exterior; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Stucco construction; Composition roof; Built on pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Garden; Outdoor storage; Covered patio/deck; Front porch; Fenced backyard with wood fence and gate

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Dishwasher; Exhaust fan; Free-standing electric range; Microwave; Stainless steel appliances; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom located downstairs
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (forced air); Electric heating; Exhaust fan; Central air conditioning; Wall/window unit(s); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Storage space; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Master bedroom on main level; Blinds; Double pane insulated windows with screens
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-467 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (33.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (47.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (47.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in TX, #3,080 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Abernathy ISD (town): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #242 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Abernathy El (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 411 students, 49% FRL); Abernathy Middle (math 47% / reading 42%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 180 students, 50% FRL); Abernathy H S (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 243 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13 units permitted in Hale County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hale County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,500 (47.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.17%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 15.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $103,551
• Equity at exit: $220,625

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $328,107
• Equity at exit: $475,787

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79311

• Home prices YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,241/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,886

Max offer price $162,461

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1005 East St Abernathy, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,295	$1.06	13d	1	0.46mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 179 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,900 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $244,900 Active 171 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,900 Active 170 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,900 Active 169 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $244,900 Active 168 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,241 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,482 · $373/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,241/yr (+$270/mo · 261.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$1,241
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,243
• − Management: −$1,243
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$10,254
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,461
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abernathy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807410
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,776
• Composite: 39.87/100
• National rank: #3862
• State rank: #242 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abernathy

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #3080

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abernathy, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,533

Population outlook (Hale County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,851 people
• By 2030: 29,158 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 25,681 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 22,420 · -27.3%
• By 2075: 15,857 · -48.6%
• By 2100: 10,500 · -66.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 8% Native American 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hale

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.0) · D 20.5% · R 78.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -58.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.0 2020: R+51.1 2016: R+48.4 2012: R+47.8 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.13%
• Current HPI: 244.4163
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $244,900 LARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $255,000 LARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listed $275,000 LARMLS
• 2018-02-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,241 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.