407 Earl Shofner Rd

Zavalla, TX 75949

$265,000F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,092 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Active · 117 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,415/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$489
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-761/mo
• Annual: $-9,131/yr
• Cap rate: 2.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.31%
• DSCR: 0.45
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-761 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (50.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (46.6% below list).
• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (50.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,345 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Huntington ISD (rural): math 46% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #303 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 2.1% in Zavalla — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.