407 Earl Shofner Rd · Zavalla, TX 75949

$265,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1974 0.59 ac lot $127/sqft · 61% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience true 70's charm at 407 Earl Shofner Road in Huntington, Texas, located across from Hanks Creek Park on Sam Rayburn. This inviting brick home features 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, an office, and a dedicated dining room. The spacious living area showcases built-in bookcases, exposed wood beams, and a wood-burning fireplace. Enjoy classic touches like the stained-glass front door. Additional highlights include a 2-car attached garage, a detached 3-bay garage with a half bath, a large covered back patio, fenced yard, and a half-circle drive for ample parking. Roof is only 7 years old. Priced to sell and ready for your personal updates.

Key facts

• Built-in bookcases
• Exposed wood beams
• Hanks creek park

Tags

• HANKS CREEK PARK
• BUILT-IN BOOKCASES
• EXPOSED WOOD BEAMS
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• STAINED-GLASS FRONT DOOR
• DETACHED 3-BAY GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-761 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (50.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (46.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (50.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 2.2% in Zavalla — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,345 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Huntington ISD (rural): math 46% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #303 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,582 (50.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.31%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $686,319
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -61.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $95,914
• Equity at exit: $238,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.32×
• Total profit: $320,661
• Equity at exit: $514,837

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75949

• Home prices YoY: 19.1%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 15.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,415 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$379 /mo · $4,544/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-761

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,378

Max offer price $130,582

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-611	-5% $-686	+0% $-761	+5% $-836	+10% $-911
Rent	-10% $-873	-5% $-817	+0% $-761	+5% $-705	+10% $-649
Rate	-1.0pp $-627	-0.5pp $-694	base $-761	+0.5pp $-830	+1.0pp $-899

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $265,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $265,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $275,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 98 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 97 DOM
18. 2025-12-11
    listed $275,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    Experience true 70's charm at 407 Earl Shofner Road in Huntington, Texas, located across from Hanks Creek Park on Sam Rayburn. This inviting brick home features 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, an office, and a dedicated dining room. The spacious living area showcases built-in bookcases, exposed wood beams, and a wood-burning fireplace. Enjoy classic touches like the stained-glass front door. Additional highlights include a 2-car attached garage, a detached 3-bay garage with a half bath, a large covered back patio, fenced yard, and a half-circle drive for ample parking. Roof is only 7 years old. Priced to sell and ready for your personal updates.

19. 2025-12-11
    listed $275,000 Active 646-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    Experience true 70's charm at 407 Earl Shofner Road in Huntington, Texas, located across from Hanks Creek Park on Sam Rayburn. This inviting brick home features 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, an office, and a dedicated dining room. The spacious living area showcases built-in bookcases, exposed wood beams, and a wood-burning fireplace. Enjoy classic touches like the stained-glass front door. Additional highlights include a 2-car attached garage, a detached 3-bay garage with a half bath, a large covered back patio, fenced yard, and a half-circle drive for ample parking. Roof is only 7 years old. Priced to sell and ready for your personal updates.

20. 2021-11-29
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2021-11-29
    soldstatus
22. 2021-11-24
    soldstatus
23. 2021-09-15
    status Pending
24. 2021-09-10
    listed $209,900 Active
25. 2021-09-08
    listed $209,900
26. 2016-07-06
    soldstatus
27. 2013-09-30
    soldstatus
28. 2011-08-31
    soldstatus
29. 2008-06-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,544 · $379/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,850 · $404/mo
• Expected delta: +$306/yr (+$25/mo · 6.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$4,544
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,358
• − Management: −$1,358
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$14,159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,398
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,733/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huntington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824000
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,651
• Composite: 36.85/100
• National rank: #4554
• State rank: #303 of 826 in TX

Livability — Zavalla

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1345
• US rank: #23201

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,041

Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,174 people
• By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.97%
• Current HPI: 304.757
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+31.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Listed $275,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $275,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2021-11-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-11-24 Sold (MLS) — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2021-09-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-09-10 Listed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2021-09-08 Listed $209,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2016-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,544 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.