699 Mund Rd

Deer Park, CA 94574

$625,000D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,410 sqft · Built 1941 · Land · Pending · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,971/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,278
• Tax + insurance: −$1,042
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,254
• Net cashflow: $398/mo
• Annual: $4,774/yr
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.73%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $175,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath land listed at $625k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $597k (4.5% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($606k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $597k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,058 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Saint Helena Unified (town): math 50% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #231 of 1,400 in CA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.0% in Deer Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,971/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($139k/yr) (locally 383% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.