20197 Chaparral

Lake Wildwood, CA 95946

$273,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,752 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,586/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax + insurance: −$620
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-9/mo
• Annual: $-110/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.14%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $76,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-110/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (5.3% below list).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $248k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#798 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A, housing B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Penn Valley Union Elementary (town): math 31% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #253 of 517 in CA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.6% in Lake Wildwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.