20197 Chaparral · Lake Wildwood, CA 95946

$273,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,752 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1985 0.40 ac lot Est $463k · 41% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1985

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total number of units: 1
• Financial info: Assessments: Unknown
• HOA & community: Community amenities include biking

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two garage spaces (two parking spaces total)
• Utilities: Water source: Other; Sewer: Unknown (Sewer or Septic - Unknown)
• Home design: Single-family house; Two-story; Single unit (no ADU); No common walls
• Construction: Year built source: Other; Living area source: Assessor's data; Parcel number available
• Exterior features: No pool; Lot described as 0-1 unit/acre; Lot size sourced from assessor's data; Elevation reported in feet

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace (has heating)
• Interior features: Two levels; Entry on level 1; No laundry hookup listed
• Laundry & utility: No laundry (listed as None)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-110/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.6% in Lake Wildwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#798 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A, housing B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Penn Valley Union Elementary (town): math 31% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #253 of 517 in CA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,430 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.14%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $462,528
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20003 Echo Blue Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,752 (0%)	7mo	$490,000	$280	92
11966 Marble Ct	0.07mi	3/3.0	1,761 (+0%)	10mo	$430,000	$244	83
20029 Echo Blue Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,684 (-4%)	9mo	$367,000	$218	82
20652 Chaparral Cir	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,764 (+1%)	2mo	$362,000	$205	78
20268 Chaparral Cir	0.05mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,876 (+7%)	1mo	$400,000	$213	76
20159 Chaparral Cir	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,858 (+6%)	22mo	$420,000	$226	70
11891 Raven Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,768 (+1%)	6mo	$520,000	$294	60
11815 Swallow Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,707 (-3%)	14mo	$450,000	$264	53
19215 Chaparral	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,660 (-5%)	13mo	$470,000	$283	44
19336 Wildflower Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-12%)	11mo	$549,000	$357	42
19197 Swallow Way	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-14%)	11mo	$427,500	$285	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-44,682
• Equity at exit: $40,705

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-39,089
• Equity at exit: $23,604

Cash invested: $76,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95946

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,586 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax from tax record: −$507 /mo · $6,080/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,598

Max offer price $271,379

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $145	-5% $68	+0% $-9	+5% $-86	+10% $-164
Rent	-10% $-213	-5% $-111	+0% $-9	+5% $93	+10% $195
Rate	-1.0pp $128	-0.5pp $60	base $-9	+0.5pp $-80	+1.0pp $-152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,250
• Closing costs: $8,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18212 Hummingbird Dr Penn Valley, CA	4.0	3.0	1700	$2,400	$1.41	22d	1	1.26mi
17883 Jayhawk Dr Penn Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1754	$2,800	$1.60	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-16
   price $273,000
2. 2026-02-23
   listed $287,000 Active
3. 2005-05-31
   soldstatus $354,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,080 · $507/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,080 · $507/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,292
• − Property taxes: −$6,080
• − Insurance: −$1,365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,483
• − Management: −$2,483
• − Depreciation: −$7,942
• Taxable loss: −$4,613
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,107
• After-tax cash flow: $997/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penn Valley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0601427
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,786
• Composite: 32.4/100
• National rank: #5728
• State rank: #253 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Wildwood

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #798
• US rank: #22765

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Wildwood, CA
• Population (ZIP): 9,448

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.27%
• Current HPI: 226.5683
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-22.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $273,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $287,000 CRMLS
• 2005-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $354,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,080 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.