3817 Oakcrest Ln

Zephyrhills South, FL 33541

$43,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1986 · Other · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,439/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$225
• Tax + insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $840/mo
• Annual: $10,074/yr
• Cap rate: 29.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.67%
• DSCR: 4.72
• 1% rule: 3.35%
• Cash to close: $12,040

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $43k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $840 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $43k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $42k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $297 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#836 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 29.7% vs local median 4.1% in Zephyrhills South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major: roof — No visible damage, but age is implied
• Major: flooring — No visible flooring, but age is implied
• Major: interior walls/paint — No visible interior, but age is implied
• Major: bathrooms — No visible bathrooms, but age is implied
• Major: kitchen — No visible kitchen, but age is implied