3817 Oakcrest Ln · Zephyrhills South, FL 33541

$43,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Other · 17 Days on market

Built 1986 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A Manufacturer home located in a 55+community in Zephyrhills FL. Home comes fully furnished. Lot rent 700, includes water/lawn care/trash pick up 2x wkly and access to pool and club house.

Key facts

• Club house
• Access to pool
• Fully furnished

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• ACCESS TO POOL
• CLUB HOUSE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1986; Single-story (living area listed)
• Construction: Living area approximately 840
• Exterior features: Located in the Zephyrhills Colony Company subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Bathrooms: Bathrooms not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $43k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $840 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $43k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.7% vs local median 4.1% in Zephyrhills South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#836 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $297 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,355 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.67%
• DSCR: 4.72
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 80.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $42,306
• Equity at exit: $6,411

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.43×
• Total profit: $89,482
• Equity at exit: $3,718

Cash invested: $12,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,439 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$225
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$54 /mo · $645/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $840

Break-even live

Break-even rent $376

Max offer price $43,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $869	-5% $854	+0% $840	+5% $825	+10% $810
Rent	-10% $726	-5% $783	+0% $840	+5% $896	+10% $953
Rate	-1.0pp $861	-0.5pp $850	base $840	+0.5pp $828	+1.0pp $817

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,750
• Closing costs: $1,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38031 Meyer Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,175	$1.18	25d	1	0.26mi
38236 Fir Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	25d	1	0.44mi
4412 Plum St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,100	$1.76	25d	1	0.59mi
4410 Plum St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,100	$1.76	25d	1	0.59mi
37925 Date Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.5	720	$1,300	$1.81	25d	1	0.83mi
37819 Alissa Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	18d	1	0.88mi
4639 Coral St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,250	$1.18	25d	1	0.95mi
4812 Coral St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	856	$1,200	$1.40	20d	1	1.08mi
4833 Royal Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,090	$1.62	25d	1	1.10mi
4940 4th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	25d	1	1.16mi
4738 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,400	$1.73	25d	1	1.18mi
4808 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	702	$1,295	$1.84	11d	1	1.22mi
38702 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	25d	1	1.22mi
5022 5th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	974	$1,595	$1.64	25d	1	1.23mi
4845 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	752	$1,350	$1.80	25d	1	1.26mi
5028 16th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,545	$1.41	0d	1	1.31mi
39014 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	0d	1	1.36mi
39014 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	5d	1	1.36mi
5150 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$925	$1.54	25d	1	1.37mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	17d	1	1.41mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	5d	1	1.41mi
5208 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	5d	1	1.41mi
5206 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	5d	1	1.41mi
37902 7th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,775	$1.97	25d	1	1.42mi
5237 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	964	$1,700	$1.76	25d	1	1.48mi
5217 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,050	$1.94	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $43,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $43,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $45,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    remarks 188-char remark
12. 2026-06-01
    listed $45,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,409
• − Property taxes: −$645
• − Insurance: −$215
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,381
• − Management: −$1,381
• − Depreciation: −$1,251
• Taxable income: $9,984
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,396
• After-tax cash flow: $7,678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

This 55+ manufactured home requires significant repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Immediate attention to the exterior, roof, and interior systems is recommended.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — No visible damage, but age is implied
• Major flooring — No visible flooring, but age is implied
• Major interior walls/paint — No visible interior, but age is implied
• Major bathrooms — No visible bathrooms, but age is implied
• Major kitchen — No visible kitchen, but age is implied
• Major systems — No visible systems, but age is implied

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both repair roof — Fixes major issue and prevents further damage
• Both repair flooring — Improves living space and value
• Both paint interior walls — Enhances interior appearance and value
• Both repair bathrooms — Improves functionality and value
• Both repair kitchen — Enhances functionality and value
• Both repair HVAC systems — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No visible damage, but age is implied	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No visible flooring, but age is implied	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No visible interior, but age is implied	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No visible bathrooms, but age is implied	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · No visible kitchen, but age is implied	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · No visible systems, but age is implied	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both repair roof — Fixes major issue and prevents further damage ↑
• Both repair flooring — Improves living space and value ↑
• Both paint interior walls — Enhances interior appearance and value ↑
• Both repair bathrooms — Improves functionality and value ↑
• Both repair kitchen — Enhances functionality and value ↑
• Both repair HVAC systems — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills South

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #836
• US rank: #20702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing C+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills South, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $45,000 FSBO.com