809 Maple St

Grayling, MI 49738

$74,950B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Built 1914 · SingleFamily · Pending · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $974/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $248/mo
• Annual: $2,976/yr
• Cap rate: 10.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.18%
• DSCR: 1.63
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $20,986

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($974 rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#269 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crawford Ausable Schools (town): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #140 of 540 in MI (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grayling Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #547 of 1,397 statewide, top 41%, 638 students, 66% FRL); Grayling Middle School (math 48% / reading 52%, grade C, #117 of 493 statewide, top 25%, 461 students, 57% FRL); Grayling High School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade C+, #80 of 713 statewide, top 12%, 452 students, 50% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 75 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.0% in Grayling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.