809 Maple St · Grayling, MI 49738

$74,950

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1914 10,478 sqft lot $58/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Highest & Best due April 27, 2026 by 6pm. H & B form is in documents. Charming older home on a large corner lot -- great potential! Features include some hardwood floors, three possible bedrooms (two non-conforming), a huge dining area, and a large kitchen ideal for entertaining. Convenient first-floor laundry. Home needs some work but offers excellent opportunity to renovate and customize. Enclosed porch. Close to downtown Grayling for dining, shopping, and entertainment. Per seller, there's a 7 day waiting period after the MLS date has passed b/4 all offers shall be submitted. EMD held with seller's title company. Property is sold in 'as is' condition.

Key facts

• Huge dining area
• Large kitchen
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• HUGE DINING AREA
• LARGE KITCHEN
• FIRST-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• CORNER LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($974 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.0% in Grayling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#269 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crawford Ausable Schools (town): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #140 of 540 in MI (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grayling Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #547 of 1,397 statewide, top 41%, 638 students, 66% FRL); Grayling Middle School (math 48% / reading 52%, grade C, #117 of 493 statewide, top 25%, 461 students, 57% FRL); Grayling High School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade C+, #80 of 713 statewide, top 12%, 452 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 75 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $70,453 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.18%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,115
• List price: $74,950
• Delta: -51.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
704 Elm St	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,230 (-4%)	2mo	$75,000	$61	77
702 Elm St	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,400 (+9%)	12mo	$182,000	$130	66
607 Chestnut St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+9%)	12mo	$205,000	$146	63
708 Erie St	0.28mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,456 (+13%)	3mo	$170,000	$117	58
401 Ogemaw St	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,379 (+7%)	18mo	$142,000	$103	57
709 Park St	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-15%)	12mo	$180,000	$164	56
603 Galen St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-13%)	4mo	$195,000	$174	54
204 Chestnut Street St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,216 (-6%)	13mo	$125,000	$103	50
109 State St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,134 (-12%)	5mo	$88,000	$78	39
501 Ionia St	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,458 (+13%)	18mo	$137,900	$95	39
208 Chestnut St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-15%)	22mo	$90,000	$82	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $3,669
• Equity at exit: $11,175

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $23,604
• Equity at exit: $6,480

Cash invested: $20,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49738

• Home prices YoY: -19.5%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $974 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,164/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $660

Max offer price $74,950

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $290	-5% $269	+0% $248	+5% $227	+10% $206
Rent	-10% $171	-5% $210	+0% $248	+5% $286	+10% $325
Rate	-1.0pp $286	-0.5pp $267	base $248	+0.5pp $229	+1.0pp $209

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,738
• Closing costs: $2,248
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 672-char remark

   Show marketing remark (672 chars)

   Highest & Best due April 27, 2026 by 6pm. H & B form is in documents. Charming older home on a large corner lot -- great potential! Features include some hardwood floors, three possible bedrooms (two non-conforming), a huge dining area, and a large kitchen ideal for entertaining. Convenient first-floor laundry. Home needs some work but offers excellent opportunity to renovate and customize. Enclosed porch. Close to downtown Grayling for dining, shopping, and entertainment. Per seller, there's a 7 day waiting period after the MLS date has passed b/4 all offers shall be submitted. EMD held with seller's title company. Property is sold in 'as is' condition.

2. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 672-char remark

   Show marketing remark (672 chars)

   Highest & Best due April 27, 2026 by 6pm. H & B form is in documents. Charming older home on a large corner lot -- great potential! Features include some hardwood floors, three possible bedrooms (two non-conforming), a huge dining area, and a large kitchen ideal for entertaining. Convenient first-floor laundry. Home needs some work but offers excellent opportunity to renovate and customize. Enclosed porch. Close to downtown Grayling for dining, shopping, and entertainment. Per seller, there's a 7 day waiting period after the MLS date has passed b/4 all offers shall be submitted. EMD held with seller's title company. Property is sold in 'as is' condition.

3. 2026-05-12
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (672 chars)

   Highest & Best due April 27, 2026 by 6pm. H & B form is in documents. Charming older home on a large corner lot -- great potential! Features include some hardwood floors, three possible bedrooms (two non-conforming), a huge dining area, and a large kitchen ideal for entertaining. Convenient first-floor laundry. Home needs some work but offers excellent opportunity to renovate and customize. Enclosed porch. Close to downtown Grayling for dining, shopping, and entertainment. Per seller, there's a 7 day waiting period after the MLS date has passed b/4 all offers shall be submitted. EMD held with seller's title company. Property is sold in 'as is' condition.

4. 2026-02-27
   listed $74,950 Active 672-char remark

   Show marketing remark (672 chars)

   Highest & Best due April 27, 2026 by 6pm. H & B form is in documents. Charming older home on a large corner lot -- great potential! Features include some hardwood floors, three possible bedrooms (two non-conforming), a huge dining area, and a large kitchen ideal for entertaining. Convenient first-floor laundry. Home needs some work but offers excellent opportunity to renovate and customize. Enclosed porch. Close to downtown Grayling for dining, shopping, and entertainment. Per seller, there's a 7 day waiting period after the MLS date has passed b/4 all offers shall be submitted. EMD held with seller's title company. Property is sold in 'as is' condition.

5. 2026-02-27
   listed $74,950 Active 672-char remark

   Show marketing remark (672 chars)

   Highest & Best due April 27, 2026 by 6pm. H & B form is in documents. Charming older home on a large corner lot -- great potential! Features include some hardwood floors, three possible bedrooms (two non-conforming), a huge dining area, and a large kitchen ideal for entertaining. Convenient first-floor laundry. Home needs some work but offers excellent opportunity to renovate and customize. Enclosed porch. Close to downtown Grayling for dining, shopping, and entertainment. Per seller, there's a 7 day waiting period after the MLS date has passed b/4 all offers shall be submitted. EMD held with seller's title company. Property is sold in 'as is' condition.

6. 2026-02-27
   listed $74,950 Active

   Show marketing remark (672 chars)

   Highest & Best due April 27, 2026 by 6pm. H & B form is in documents. Charming older home on a large corner lot -- great potential! Features include some hardwood floors, three possible bedrooms (two non-conforming), a huge dining area, and a large kitchen ideal for entertaining. Convenient first-floor laundry. Home needs some work but offers excellent opportunity to renovate and customize. Enclosed porch. Close to downtown Grayling for dining, shopping, and entertainment. Per seller, there's a 7 day waiting period after the MLS date has passed b/4 all offers shall be submitted. EMD held with seller's title company. Property is sold in 'as is' condition.

7. 2025-02-26
   listed $110,000 Active
8. 2018-10-31
   soldstatus $80,000
9. 2018-08-17
   soldstatus $39,000
10. 2004-09-29
    soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,164 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,164 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,164
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$935
• − Management: −$935
• − Depreciation: −$2,180
• Taxable income: $1,898
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$456
• After-tax cash flow: $2,521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crawford Ausable Schools
• NCES district ID: 2611030
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,396
• Composite: 38.94/100
• National rank: #4086
• State rank: #140 of 540 in MI

Livability — Grayling

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #6631

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grayling, MI
• Population (ZIP): 9,599

Population outlook (Crawford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,042 people
• By 2030: 12,520 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 11,292 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 10,157 · -22.1%
• By 2075: 8,338 · -36.1%
• By 2100: 6,765 · -48.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Crawford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.5% · R 66.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.7pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+30.7 2016: R+32.8 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.14%
• Current HPI: 280.922
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+92.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-12 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $74,950 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $74,950 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $74,950 REALCOMP
• 2025-02-26 Listed $110,000 WWMLS
• 2018-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,164 · -42.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.