17333 Heron Bay Clfs

Dexter, NY 13685

$124,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,453/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $284/mo
• Annual: $3,414/yr
• Cap rate: 9.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.76%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#869 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, health & safety D.
• General Brown Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #407 of 590 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: siding — Significant damage
• Major: roof — Damaged shingles
• Major: flooring — Worn-out condition
• Major: paint — Peeling paint