17333 Heron Bay Clfs · Dexter, NY 13685

$124,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2014 Poor condition 6.07 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Riverside Retreat on 6+ Acres! Tucked away on a private drive, this 2-bed, 1-bath seasonal camp sits on the banks of the Black River. Features include a fully insulated cottage, drilled well, septic, and four sheds. A hunter’s paradise with tons of wildlife and privacy, yet just a short drive to local conveniences.

Key facts

• Four sheds
• Septic
• Drilled well

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVE
• FULLY INSULATED COTTAGE
• DRILLED WELL
• SEPTIC
• FOUR SHEDS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; High-speed internet available
• Home design: 2-story; Existing structure; Wood siding; Metal roof
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation; Wood siding construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Gravel driveway; Private road frontage; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Galley kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace; Heating present (see remarks)
• Interior features: Galley kitchen; Fireplace (2 total); See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#869 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, health & safety D.
• General Brown Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #407 of 590 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $124,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.76%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $86,163
• Equity at exit: $112,520

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.85×
• Total profit: $239,533
• Equity at exit: $242,653

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13685

• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,453 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $371	-5% $328	+0% $284	+5% $241	+10% $198
Rent	-10% $170	-5% $227	+0% $284	+5% $342	+10% $399
Rate	-1.0pp $347	-0.5pp $316	base $284	+0.5pp $252	+1.0pp $219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $124,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 316-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $124,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,395
• − Management: −$1,395
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $1,515
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$364
• After-tax cash flow: $3,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and improvements to its exterior, interior, and landscaping to become move-in ready and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant damage
• Major roof — Damaged shingles
• Major flooring — Worn-out condition
• Major paint — Peeling paint

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances property's visual appeal
• Both exterior repairs — Improves property's overall condition
• Both HVAC and mechanicals — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Damaged shingles	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn-out condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
paint · Peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances property's visual appeal ↑
• Both exterior repairs — Improves property's overall condition ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanicals — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: General Brown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611910
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $57,237
• Composite: 41.75/100
• National rank: #3398
• State rank: #407 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dexter

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #869
• US rank: #16748

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,234

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 123.13%
• Current HPI: 461.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $124,900 CNYIS