4473 Old Sand Rd

Esmont, VA 22969

$179,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 438 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,325/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-108/mo
• Annual: $-1,300/yr
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.58%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (26.4% below list).
• It's been on market 438 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#488 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Leslie H. Walton Middle (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #38 of 342 statewide, top 11%, 339 students, 38% FRL); Monticello High (math 49% / reading 81%, grade B, #210 of 319 statewide, top 66%, 1,229 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 23% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $180k implies a 283% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 438 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.