4473 Old Sand Rd · Esmont, VA 22969

$179,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 438 Days on market

Built 1930 2.00 ac lot $153/sqft · 24% below area Est $237k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor and or Handyman special. Dream of owning a home on 2 acres in Albemarle County? This is your opportunity. Don't miss out. With the little vision and ingenuity, the dream is yours. This 2-acre parcel is nestled in southern end of the county on quiet country rd. , here is where your opportunity awaits.

Key facts

• Albemarle county
• 2 acres
• 2 acre lot

Tags

• 2 ACRES
• ALBEMARLE COUNTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#488 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Leslie H. Walton Middle (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #38 of 342 statewide, top 11%, 339 students, 38% FRL); Monticello High (math 49% / reading 81%, grade B, #210 of 319 statewide, top 66%, 1,229 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 23% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 438 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $180k implies a 283% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,496 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 438 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.58%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,314
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -24.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-36,087
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-40,450
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22969

• Home prices YoY: -8.1%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,325 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,640/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,462

Max offer price $160,757

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-7	-5% $-57	+0% $-108	+5% $-159	+10% $-210
Rent	-10% $-213	-5% $-161	+0% $-108	+5% $-56	+10% $-4
Rate	-1.0pp $-18	-0.5pp $-63	base $-108	+0.5pp $-155	+1.0pp $-202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $179,900 Active 438 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $179,900 Active 437 DOM
3. 2026-01-08
   price $179,900 310-char remark

   Show marketing remark (310 chars)

   Investor and or Handyman special. Dream of owning a home on 2 acres in Albemarle County? This is your opportunity. Don't miss out. With the little vision and ingenuity, the dream is yours. This 2-acre parcel is nestled in southern end of the county on quiet country rd. , here is where your opportunity awaits.

4. 2025-09-03
   price $199,000 310-char remark

   Show marketing remark (310 chars)

   Investor and or Handyman special. Dream of owning a home on 2 acres in Albemarle County? This is your opportunity. Don't miss out. With the little vision and ingenuity, the dream is yours. This 2-acre parcel is nestled in southern end of the county on quiet country rd. , here is where your opportunity awaits.

5. 2025-03-20
   listed $216,000 Active 310-char remark

   Show marketing remark (310 chars)

   Investor and or Handyman special. Dream of owning a home on 2 acres in Albemarle County? This is your opportunity. Don't miss out. With the little vision and ingenuity, the dream is yours. This 2-acre parcel is nestled in southern end of the county on quiet country rd. , here is where your opportunity awaits.

6. 1990-04-02
   soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,640 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,640 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,640
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,272
• − Management: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$4,495
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,079
• After-tax cash flow: $-222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albemarle County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100090
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,851
• Composite: 62.28/100
• National rank: #698
• State rank: #14 of 131 in VA

Livability — Esmont

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #488
• US rank: #21526

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,675

Population outlook (Albemarle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,403 people
• By 2030: 125,829 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 137,705 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 148,058 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 172,223 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 185,628 · +55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Scottish 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Albemarle

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.1) · D 66.3% · R 32.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 34.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.1 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.40%
• Current HPI: 244.1023
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+282.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $179,900 CAAR
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $199,000 CAAR
• 2025-03-20 Listed $216,000 CAAR
• 1990-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,640 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.