TBD Fm 869

Verhalen, TX 79772

$179,000C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,898/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$298
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $262/mo
• Annual: $3,144/yr
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.27%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pecos-Barstow-Toyah ISD (town): math 28% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #652 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 644 students, 80% FRL); Crockett Middle (math 30% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 635 students, 77% FRL); Pecos H S (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,436 of 1,632 statewide, top 88%, 766 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 22 units permitted in Reeves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Reeves County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Visible rust and damage
• Major: exterior siding — Rust and debris
• Major: flooring — Debris and general disrepair
• Major: interior walls/paint — Visible damage and discoloration
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No visible systems, likely in need of repair