TBD Fm 869 · Verhalen, TX 79772

$179,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 1972 Poor condition 17 ac lot ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located 15 miles south of Pecos TX, this 17 ACRE PROPERTY includes a large (1188 sqft) 1 bedroom 1 bath home w pipe fencing. Needs lots of TLC. Two Modera water hookups, Two electric hookups, Two carports, property located right off Cherry Creek. This would be a perfect location for a company to run a business off Hwy 17, or for a family looking for acreage.

Key facts

• Two water hookups
• Two electric hookups
• Large home

Tags

• 17 ACRE PROPERTY
• LARGE HOME
• TWO WATER HOOKUPS
• TWO ELECTRIC HOOKUPS
• TWO CARPORTS
• LOCATED OFF CHERRY CREEK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pecos-Barstow-Toyah ISD (town): math 28% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #652 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 644 students, 80% FRL); Crockett Middle (math 30% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 635 students, 77% FRL); Pecos H S (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,436 of 1,632 statewide, top 88%, 766 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 22 units permitted in Reeves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Reeves County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.27%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,521
• Equity at exit: $42,445

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $37,643
• Equity at exit: $43,922

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79772

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,898 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,566

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $386	-5% $324	+0% $262	+5% $200	+10% $138
Rent	-10% $112	-5% $187	+0% $262	+5% $337	+10% $412
Rate	-1.0pp $352	-0.5pp $308	base $262	+0.5pp $216	+1.0pp $168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-17
   listed $179,000 Active 360-char remark

   Show marketing remark (360 chars)

   Located 15 miles south of Pecos TX, this 17 ACRE PROPERTY includes a large (1188 sqft) 1 bedroom 1 bath home w pipe fencing. Needs lots of TLC. Two Modera water hookups, Two electric hookups, Two carports, property located right off Cherry Creek. This would be a perfect location for a company to run a business off Hwy 17, or for a family looking for acreage.

2. 2025-05-13
   price $199,000
3. 2024-05-07
   price $169,000
4. 2023-05-19
   price $179,000
5. 2023-04-05
   price $230,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,822
• − Management: −$1,822
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $313
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$75
• After-tax cash flow: $3,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and improvements to be considered move-in ready. Significant work is needed to address the poor condition of the roof, exterior, and interior, as well as the HVAC and landscaping.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Visible rust and damage
• Major exterior siding — Rust and debris
• Major flooring — Debris and general disrepair
• Major interior walls/paint — Visible damage and discoloration
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible systems, likely in need of repair

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves both resale and rental value
• Both HVAC/mechanicals — Improves comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Exterior siding and roof — Improves appearance and structural integrity

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Visible rust and damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Rust and debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Debris and general disrepair	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Visible damage and discoloration	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible systems, likely in need of repair	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both HVAC/mechanicals — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Exterior siding and roof — Improves appearance and structural integrity ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pecos-Barstow-Toyah ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834550
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,982
• Composite: 24.61/100
• National rank: #7632
• State rank: #652 of 826 in TX

Livability — Verhalen

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,547

Population outlook (Reeves County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,069 people
• By 2030: 18,407 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 21,342 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 24,701 · +44.7%
• By 2075: 32,688 · +91.5%
• By 2100: 36,117 · +111.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 22% White 12% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 78%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 38% English-only · Spanish 62%

Political lean MEDSL · Reeves

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.9) · D 31.1% · R 68.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 5.2pp · 2024: -36.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.9 2020: R+23.3 2016: D+7.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.09%
• Current HPI: 147.9377
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $179,000 ODMLS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $199,000 ODMLS
• 2024-05-07 Price Changed $169,000 ODMLS
• 2023-05-19 Price Changed $179,000 ODMLS
• 2023-04-05 Price Changed $230,000 ODMLS