154 Timber Creek Ln SW

Smyrna, GA 30060

$224,900F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · Built 1983 · MultiFamily · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,607/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-244/mo
• Annual: $-2,923/yr
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.64%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $62,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (28.6% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $161k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#27 in GA, #3,621 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, commute A-; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Cobb County (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #25 of 174 in GA (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,625 units permitted in Cobb County in 2024 (389 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cobb County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Smyrna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.