154 Timber Creek Ln SW · Smyrna, GA 30060

$224,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1983 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

This is a 3BR/2.5BA townhome located in the popular Timber Creek Estates community with no HOA. Conveniently located near various shopping and restaurants, Hwy 75 and 285, Silver Comet Trail, Smyrna Market Village, The Battery and more. This professionally managed residence will be sold with a long term tenant already in place, allowing you to immediately generate income. Kindly refrain from approaching or lingering around the property or disturbing the tenants until an appointment is scheduled and confirmed.

Key facts

• Timber creek estates
• The battery
• No hoa

Tags

• TIMBER CREEK ESTATES
• NO HOA
• SILVER COMET TRAIL
• SMYRNA MARKET VILLAGE
• THE BATTERY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-242 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Smyrna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#27 in GA, #3,621 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, commute A-; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Cobb County (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #25 of 174 in GA (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,625 units permitted in Cobb County in 2024 (389 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cobb County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,812 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.62%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-54,216
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-76,379
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30060

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,608 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,877/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,915

Max offer price $182,067

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-115	-5% $-179	+0% $-242	+5% $-306	+10% $-370
Rent	-10% $-370	-5% $-306	+0% $-242	+5% $-179	+10% $-115
Rate	-1.0pp $-129	-0.5pp $-185	base $-242	+0.5pp $-301	+1.0pp $-360

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
191 Timber Creek Ln SW Marietta, GA	2.0	2.0	1046	$1,650	$1.58	4d	1	0.18mi
191 Timber Creek Ln SW Unit 2 Marietta, GA	2.0	2.0	1046	$1,700	$1.63	13d	1	0.19mi
2870 Lakemont Dr SW Unit 2870 Marietta, GA	2.0	2.5	1176	$1,300	$1.11	18d	1	0.19mi
2870 Personality Pkwy SW Marietta, GA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1150	$1,395	$1.21	3d	16	0.23mi
— Marietta, GA	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	44d	1	0.31mi
2934 Lakemont Dr SW Unit 2936 Marietta, GA	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,495	$1.36	19d	1	0.33mi
2934 Lakemont Dr SW Unit 2936 Marietta, GA	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,295	$1.18	13d	1	0.33mi
2986 Courtland Oaks Trl SW Unit Ter Marietta, GA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	6d	1	0.37mi
250 Robbie Ln SW Marietta, GA	3.0	2.5	1288	$2,116	$1.64	44d	1	0.40mi
2751 Hammondton Rd SE Marietta, GA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1272	$1,345	$1.06	1d	19	0.41mi
311 Wiley Ct SW Marietta, GA	3.0	2.0	1304	$2,285	$1.75	6d	1	0.48mi
2665 Favor Rd SW Marietta, GA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1150	$1,565	$1.36	2d	17	0.49mi
170 Smyrna Powder Springs Rd SE Smyrna, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0	770	$1,150	$1.49	3d	18	0.65mi
3104 Biggern Ave SE Smyrna, GA	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	13d	1	0.79mi
161 Larose Cir SE Marietta, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,845	$1.54	25d	1	0.83mi
331 Smyrna Powder Springs Rd SE Smyrna, GA	3.0	2.0	1431	$2,200	$1.54	21d	1	0.83mi
1298 Poplar PT Smyrna, GA	2.0	2.5	1600	$1,600	$1.00	19d	1	0.93mi
1339 Poplar Pointe SE Smyrna, GA	2.0	2.0	1452	$2,000	$1.38	17d	1	0.99mi
3058 Favor Pines Ct SW Marietta, GA	3.0	2.0	1776	$2,195	$1.24	25d	1	0.99mi
1166 Magnolia Way SE Smyrna, GA	2.0	2.5	1292	$2,200	$1.70	44d	1	1.00mi
3435 Alexander Pl SW Unit B Smyrna, GA	1.0	1.0	1276	$1,100	$0.86	44d	1	1.07mi
3435 Alexander Pl SW Rm A Smyrna, GA	1.0	1.0	1276	$900	$0.71	44d	1	1.07mi
2300 Benson Poole Rd SE Smyrna, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0	788	$1,399	$1.78	3d	6	1.08mi
921 Walnut Cir SW Marietta, GA	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,055	$0.71	3d	1	1.14mi
2935 Old Concord Rd SE Smyrna, GA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1102	$1,499	$1.36	44d	5	1.15mi
1100 Westfield Trce SE Smyrna, GA	2.0	2.5	1320	$2,100	$1.59	4d	1	1.17mi
1100 Westfield Trce SE Smyrna, GA	2.0	2.5	1320	$2,100	$1.59	13d	1	1.17mi
134 Summer Crest Pl SW Marietta, GA	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,055	$1.46	4d	1	1.19mi
641 Powder Springs St Unit 13 Smyrna, GA	1.0	1.0	950	$1,195	$1.26	44d	1	1.28mi
641 Powder Springs St Smyrna, GA	1.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	44d	1	1.28mi
641 Powder Springs St Smyrna, GA	1.0	1.0	950	$1,120	$1.18	25d	1	1.28mi
640 Glendale Pl SE Smyrna, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1025	$1,348	$1.32	6d	2	1.32mi
1901 Old Concord Rd SE Smyrna, GA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1145	$1,195	$1.04	2d	28	1.32mi
2050 Austell Rd SW Marietta, GA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1172	$1,586	$1.35	1d	29	1.37mi
1937 Casey Dr SE Marietta, GA	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,050	$1.90	19d	1	1.41mi
3064 Hicks Rd Unit C Marietta, GA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	4d	1	1.44mi
300 Hurt Rd SE Smyrna, GA	2.0–4.0	2.0	1309	$1,145	$0.87	1d	10	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,900 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,900 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $224,900 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $224,900 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,900 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    listed $224,900 New 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    This is a 3BR/2.5BA townhome located in the popular Timber Creek Estates community with no HOA. Conveniently located near various shopping and restaurants, Hwy 75 and 285, Silver Comet Trail, Smyrna Market Village, The Battery and more. This professionally managed residence will be sold with a long term tenant already in place, allowing you to immediately generate income. Kindly refrain from approaching or lingering around the property or disturbing the tenants until an appointment is scheduled and confirmed.

16. 2025-12-31
    historical
17. 2025-10-28
    listed $234,900 New
18. 2024-04-24
    soldstatus $180,000
19. 2003-06-04
    soldstatus $100,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,877 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,877 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$2,877
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,544
• − Management: −$1,544
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$6,932
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,664
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,246/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cobb County
• NCES district ID: 1301290
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $68,845
• Composite: 37.93/100
• National rank: #4308
• State rank: #25 of 174 in GA

Livability — Smyrna

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #27
• US rank: #3621

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living C- Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cobb County · 777,758 people
• City population: 80,612
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 38,499
• Household income: $67,510
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1368.0

Population outlook (Cobb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 868,385 people
• By 2030: 929,614 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 1,047,533 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 1,155,537 · +33.1%
• By 2075: 1,405,030 · +61.8%
• By 2100: 1,555,058 · +79.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 28% White 26% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 37% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cobb

• 2024 margin: D (+14.9) · D 56.9% · R 42.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +24.3pp toward D · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: 14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.9 2020: D+14.3 2016: D+2.1 2012: R+12.6 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -440.27%
• Current HPI: 270.2922
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.54%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+123.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $224,900 GAMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $234,900 GAMLS
• 2024-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2003-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $100,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,877 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.