12 Stone St

West Carthage, NY 13619

$169,900C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Built 1870 · SingleFamily · Active · 310 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,392/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$283
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $-74/mo
• Annual: $-893/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.88%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-893/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (18.0% below list).
• It's been on market 310 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $139k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#912 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Carthage Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #539 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Carthage Elementary School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,646 of 2,108 statewide, top 80%, 348 students, 51% FRL); Carthage Middle School (math 19% / reading 41%, grade F, #539 of 729 statewide, top 74%, 899 students, 51% FRL); Carthage Senior High School (math 92% / reading 72%, grade A, #452 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 815 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 31% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.3% in West Carthage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 310 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.