12 Stone St · West Carthage, NY 13619

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 310 Days on market

Built 1870 0.33 ac lot $125/sqft · 25% below area Est $226k · 25% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming village home located blocks from the local park, shopping & more! Enclosed front & back porches give a space to sit & relax while staying dry. Interior open floor plan offers a large living room, formal dining room, kitchen with breakfast bar that all flows together. 1st floor bedroom plus 1st floor laundry. Upstairs are 2 good sized bedrooms plus one with a large walk-in closet. An additional small nursery could also be converted to a walk-in closet. Full bath with tub unit completes the 2nd story. Hardwood floors, newer vinyl windows, metal roof & vinyl siding. Full dry basement for extra storage, newer furnace & water heater, 2 car detached garage with power. Large yard with firepit gives room to garden, play & enjoy the outdoors. Only 15 minutes to Fort Drum.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Full dry basement
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCHES
• ENCLOSED BACK PORCHES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• FULL DRY BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-893/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.3% in West Carthage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#912 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Carthage Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #539 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Carthage Elementary School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,646 of 2,108 statewide, top 80%, 348 students, 51% FRL); Carthage Middle School (math 19% / reading 41%, grade F, #539 of 729 statewide, top 74%, 899 students, 51% FRL); Carthage Senior High School (math 92% / reading 72%, grade A, #452 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 815 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 31% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 310 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $139,239 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 310 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.88%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,134
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -24.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29 Stone St	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,320 (-3%)	2mo	$222,900	$169	84
32 Franklin St	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,400 (+3%)	7mo	$164,600	$118	81
51 Champion St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,392 (+2%)	0mo	$215,000	$154	80
30 High St	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,397 (+3%)	10mo	$200,000	$143	76
22 Liberty St	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,472 (+8%)	2mo	$185,300	$126	73
71 Champion St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,317 (-3%)	8mo	$143,000	$109	68
46 Liberty St	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-12%)	8mo	$214,900	$179	62
89 Champion St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+5%)	6mo	$235,000	$164	61
26 Liberty St	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,536 (+13%)	9mo	$185,500	$121	59
20392 County Route 45	0.35mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,536 (+13%)	9mo	$151,000	$98	50
43 N Broad St	0.50mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,248 (-8%)	8mo	$100,000	$80	49
228 Church St	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+3%)	7mo	$159,900	$114	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $87,812
• Equity at exit: $153,059

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.52×
• Total profit: $262,361
• Equity at exit: $330,078

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13619

• Home prices YoY: 26.0%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,392 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,552/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $156,748

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $22	-5% $-26	+0% $-74	+5% $-123	+10% $-171
Rent	-10% $-184	-5% $-129	+0% $-74	+5% $-19	+10% $36
Rate	-1.0pp $11	-0.5pp $-31	base $-74	+0.5pp $-118	+1.0pp $-163

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
719 Alexandria St Unit 719 Carthage, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$995	$0.90	45d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,900 Active 310 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,900 Active 308 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 307 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 306 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 305 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 304 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 302 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,900 Active 301 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 298 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 297 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 296 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 293 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 292 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 291 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 290 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 289 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,900 Active 288 DOM
18. 2025-08-15
    listed $169,900 Active 818-char remark

    Show marketing remark (818 chars)

    Charming village home located blocks from the local park, shopping & more! Enclosed front & back porches give a space to sit & relax while staying dry. Interior open floor plan offers a large living room, formal dining room, kitchen with breakfast bar that all flows together. 1st floor bedroom plus 1st floor laundry. Upstairs are 2 good sized bedrooms plus one with a large walk-in closet. An additional small nursery could also be converted to a walk-in closet. Full bath with tub unit completes the 2nd story. Hardwood floors, newer vinyl windows, metal roof & vinyl siding. Full dry basement for extra storage, newer furnace & water heater, 2 car detached garage with power. Large yard with firepit gives room to garden, play & enjoy the outdoors. Only 15 minutes to Fort Drum.

19. 2023-08-16
    soldstatus $140,000
20. 2023-08-08
    soldstatus $140,000 Closed Sale or Rented 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 1 bathroom house is now available after being in the family for 54 years. There is a large yard that is close to everything. The village hall/fire department, ball fields are all about one block away. There are stores close by. Also is only a short drive to Fort Drum. House is move in ready for the new owners. Come take a look today.

21. 2023-06-15
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 1 bathroom house is now available after being in the family for 54 years. There is a large yard that is close to everything. The village hall/fire department, ball fields are all about one block away. There are stores close by. Also is only a short drive to Fort Drum. House is move in ready for the new owners. Come take a look today.

22. 2023-06-12
    price $141,200 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 1 bathroom house is now available after being in the family for 54 years. There is a large yard that is close to everything. The village hall/fire department, ball fields are all about one block away. There are stores close by. Also is only a short drive to Fort Drum. House is move in ready for the new owners. Come take a look today.

23. 2023-06-07
    price $141,300 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 1 bathroom house is now available after being in the family for 54 years. There is a large yard that is close to everything. The village hall/fire department, ball fields are all about one block away. There are stores close by. Also is only a short drive to Fort Drum. House is move in ready for the new owners. Come take a look today.

24. 2023-06-01
    listed $147,500 Active 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 1 bathroom house is now available after being in the family for 54 years. There is a large yard that is close to everything. The village hall/fire department, ball fields are all about one block away. There are stores close by. Also is only a short drive to Fort Drum. House is move in ready for the new owners. Come take a look today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,552 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,712 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$160/yr (+$13/mo · 6.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,552
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,337
• − Management: −$1,337
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$3,826
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$918
• After-tax cash flow: $25/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606630
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,450
• Composite: 32.63/100
• National rank: #5668
• State rank: #539 of 590 in NY

Livability — West Carthage

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #912
• US rank: #17830

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Carthage, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,578
• Household income: $63,120
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 379.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 84.02%
• Current HPI: 406.9439
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+15.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-15 Listed $169,900 CNYIS
• 2023-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-08 Sold (MLS) $140,000 CNYIS
• 2023-06-15 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2023-06-12 Price Changed $141,200 CNYIS
• 2023-06-07 Price Changed $141,300 CNYIS
• 2023-06-01 Listed $147,500 CNYIS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,552 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.