579 Shady Ln

Thomasville, GA 31757

$179,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Built 1998 · Other · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,553/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$298
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-10/mo
• Annual: $-120/yr
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-120/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (13.2% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#77 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, commute F.
• Thomas County (rural): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #97 of 174 in GA (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Thomas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Thomas County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $179k implies a 342% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in Thomasville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.