579 Shady Ln · Thomasville, GA 31757

$179,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Other · 24 Days on market

Built 1998

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4 bedroom 3 bath, Living, dining room, breakfast area and Den on an acre with deep well and septic tank in quiet neighborhood near Publix and shopping. Sitting area or office in Master Suite. Master bath with separate shower and garden tub, two vanities. Laundry room with room for freezer. Children & acirc; & euro; & trade; s bedrooms on opposite end of house from master. No Owner financing. Being sold by deed. Mobile Home permanently affixed to foundation. Loan pre-qualification letter required.

Key facts

• Deep well
• Septic tank
• Laundry room

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• DEEP WELL
• SEPTIC TANK
• SITTING AREA
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-120/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in Thomasville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#77 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, commute F.
• Thomas County (rural): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #97 of 174 in GA (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Thomas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thomas County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $179k implies a 342% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,316 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-29,621
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-26,521
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31757

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,553 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,566

Max offer price $177,548

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $179,000 Active
18. 2008-12-12
    soldstatus $40,500
19. 2008-10-28
    listed $42,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,491
• − Management: −$1,491
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$3,158
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$758
• After-tax cash flow: $638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thomas County
• NCES district ID: 1304890
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,341
• Composite: 24.95/100
• National rank: #7565
• State rank: #97 of 174 in GA

Livability — Thomasville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #6678

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 22,962
• Population (ZIP): 11,787

Population outlook (Thomas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,303 people
• By 2030: 45,052 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 44,034 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 42,310 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 37,569 · -17.1%
• By 2100: 30,676 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thomas

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+21.8 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.49%
• Current HPI: 215.5408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+317.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $179,000 FSBO.com
• 2008-12-12 Sold (MLS) $40,500 MBOR
• 2008-10-28 Listed $42,900 MBOR

Property tax history

-14.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $134 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.