19 Susan Dr

Barnegat, NJ 08005

$104,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 413 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,329/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax + insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$664
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $458/mo
• Annual: $5,490/yr
• Cap rate: 11.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.85%
• DSCR: 1.84
• 1% rule: 2.24%
• Cash to close: $29,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $104k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $104k).
• It's been on market 413 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $719 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#310 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Barnegat Township School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 472 in NJ (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cecil S. Collins Elementary (784 students, 38% FRL); Russell O. Brackman Middle School (math 22% / reading 51%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 579 students, 33% FRL); Barnegat High School (math 20% / reading 45%, grade F, #265 of 399 statewide, top 67%, 983 students, 30% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: 517 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.4% in Barnegat — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 413 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen countertops — The countertops appear worn and could benefit from a fresh coat of paint or replacement.
• Minor: Bathroom shower area — The shower area in the second bathroom appears dated and could be updated with a more modern design.
• Minor: Exterior paint — The exterior siding appears to be in good condition, but the paint may need touch-ups.
• Minor: Flooring — The hardwood flooring in the living areas looks worn and could benefit from refinishing or replacement.
• Minor: Interior paint — The interior walls appear to be in good condition, but the paint may need touch-ups.