19 Susan Dr · Barnegat, NJ 08005

$104,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 413 Days on market

Built 1978 Average condition $87/sqft · 23% below area Est $136k · 23% under $664/mo HOA · 29% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Desirable 55 plus Brighton at Barnegat community is your lovely 2 bedroom 2 full baths spacious home with living room, dining room, sunroom, newer kitchen with pantry, breakfast nook, and laundry area. Split living layout. Primary bedroom has huge lighted walk in closet & full bath with walk in stall shower & linen closet. As per owner - Updated windows, flooring, water heater, & recently painted as well as Insulated underneath. Outside ramp installed 2024. Outside bottom painted 2024. Blinds & shades included. Covered carport & storage shed included. Dishwasher included is not hooked up, buyer can hook up afyer transfer of title at buyer's expense. Come enjoy planned activities at clubhouse with library, kitchen, billiards & more. This fine community also offers Gazebo, shuffle board, picnic area, walking trails to pond plus huge inground swimming pool for a refreshing splash. An added bonus this community is only 12 miles to the pristine beaches of Long Beach Island, minutes to shopping, tons of restaurants & fast food, hospital, doctors, pharmacies - most - if not all located on and around Route 72 in Stafford Twp NJ. Dishwasher not hooked up. Dining area, sunroom & bedroom not photographed due to stored items. Lot rent includes water, sewer, trash removal, taxes and snow plowing of streets. Come take a look at this fine home today!

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Pantry
• Newer kitchen

Tags

• SUNROOM
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• LAUNDRY AREA
• DINING AREA
• NEWER KITCHEN
• PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $104k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $104k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.4% in Barnegat — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#310 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Barnegat Township School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 472 in NJ (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cecil S. Collins Elementary (784 students, 38% FRL); Russell O. Brackman Middle School (math 22% / reading 51%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 579 students, 33% FRL); Barnegat High School (math 20% / reading 45%, grade F, #265 of 399 statewide, top 67%, 983 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 517 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $719 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 413 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.

Recommended offer $91,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 413 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.85%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,500
• List price: $104,000
• Delta: -23.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Barbara Ln	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,200 (0%)	10mo	$87,500	$73	86
17 Casey Ct	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	0mo	$139,000	$121	84
15 Kimberly Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+8%)	1mo	$260,000	$200	77
154 Brighton Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (+4%)	6mo	$170,000	$136	74
1 Mary Ct	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	24mo	$135,000	$117	69
114 Chestnut Dr	0.43mi	2/1.5	1,250 (+4%)	3mo	$80,000	$64	69
149 Brighton Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-8%)	8mo	$22,000	$20	65
3 Casey Ct	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	15mo	$233,900	$174	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $12,731
• Equity at exit: $15,507

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $50,408
• Equity at exit: $8,992

Cash invested: $29,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $179,950 ($149/sqft)
• Median days on market: 71 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -24.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08005

• Active inventory: 517
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,329 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$130 /mo · $1,560/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$664
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $104,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $529	-5% $493	+0% $458	+5% $422	+10% $386
Rent	-10% $273	-5% $366	+0% $458	+5% $550	+10% $642
Rate	-1.0pp $510	-0.5pp $484	base $458	+0.5pp $431	+1.0pp $403

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,000
• Closing costs: $3,120
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Sycamore Access Rd Manahawkin, NJ	2.0	1.0	1075	$1,750	$1.63	63d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail $664/mo · $7,968/yr

• Likely covers: watersewertrashsnow removalpool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-10-23
   days on market $104,000 Active 413 DOM
2. 2026-10-22
   days on market $104,000 Active 412 DOM
3. 2026-10-21
   days on market $104,000 Active 411 DOM
4. 2026-10-20
   days on market $104,000 Active 410 DOM
5. 2026-10-19
   days on market $104,000 Active 409 DOM
6. 2026-10-18
   days on market $104,000 Active 408 DOM
7. 2026-10-17
   days on market $104,000 Active 407 DOM
8. 2026-10-16
   days on market $104,000 Active 406 DOM
9. 2026-10-15
   days on market $104,000 Active 405 DOM
10. 2026-10-14
    days on market $104,000 Active 404 DOM
11. 2026-10-13
    days on market $104,000 Active 403 DOM
12. 2026-10-12
    days on market $104,000 Active 402 DOM
13. 2026-10-11
    days on market $104,000 Active 401 DOM
14. 2026-10-10
    days on market $104,000 Active 400 DOM
15. 2026-10-09
    days on market $104,000 Active 399 DOM
16. 2026-10-08
    days on market $104,000 Active 398 DOM
17. 2026-10-07
    days on market $104,000 Active 397 DOM
18. 2026-10-06
    days on market $104,000 Active 396 DOM
19. 2026-10-05
    days on market $104,000 Active 395 DOM
20. 2026-10-04
    days on market $104,000 Active 394 DOM
21. 2026-10-03
    days on market $104,000 Active 393 DOM
22. 2026-10-02
    days on market $104,000 Active 392 DOM
23. 2026-10-01
    days on market $104,000 Active 391 DOM
24. 2026-09-30
    days on market $104,000 Active 390 DOM
25. 2026-09-29
    days on market $104,000 Active 389 DOM
26. 2026-09-28
    days on market $104,000 Active 388 DOM
27. 2026-09-27
    days on market $104,000 Active 387 DOM
28. 2026-09-26
    days on market $104,000 Active 386 DOM
29. 2026-09-25
    days on market $104,000 Active 385 DOM
30. 2026-09-24
    days on market $104,000 Active 384 DOM
31. 2026-09-23
    days on market $104,000 Active 383 DOM
32. 2026-09-22
    days on market $104,000 Active 382 DOM
33. 2026-09-21
    days on market $104,000 Active 381 DOM
34. 2026-09-20
    days on market $104,000 Active 380 DOM
35. 2026-09-19
    days on market $104,000 Active 379 DOM
36. 2026-09-18
    days on market $104,000 Active 378 DOM
37. 2026-09-17
    days on market $104,000 Active 377 DOM
38. 2026-09-16
    days on market $104,000 Active 376 DOM
39. 2026-09-15
    days on market $104,000 Active 375 DOM
40. 2026-09-14
    days on market $104,000 Active 374 DOM
41. 2026-09-13
    days on market $104,000 Active 373 DOM
42. 2026-09-12
    days on market $104,000 Active 372 DOM
43. 2026-09-11
    days on market $104,000 Active 371 DOM
44. 2026-09-05
    days on market $104,000 Active 365 DOM
45. 2026-09-04
    days on market $104,000 Active 364 DOM
46. 2026-09-02
    days on market $104,000 Active 362 DOM
47. 2026-08-31
    days on market $104,000 Active 360 DOM
48. 2026-08-29
    days on market $104,000 Active 358 DOM
49. 2026-08-28
    days on market $104,000 Active 357 DOM
50. 2026-08-27
    days on market $104,000 Active 356 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,826
• − Property taxes: −$1,560
• − Insurance: −$520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,236
• − Management: −$2,236
• − HOA: −$7,968
• − Depreciation: −$3,025
• Taxable income: $4,581
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,100
• After-tax cash flow: $4,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,000–$18,000 screening

The home is in average condition with some cosmetic updates needed to improve its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, which can increase its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen countertops — The countertops appear worn and could benefit from a fresh coat of paint or replacement.
• Minor Bathroom shower area — The shower area in the second bathroom appears dated and could be updated with a more modern design.
• Minor Exterior paint — The exterior siding appears to be in good condition, but the paint may need touch-ups.
• Minor Flooring — The hardwood flooring in the living areas looks worn and could benefit from refinishing or replacement.
• Minor Interior paint — The interior walls appear to be in good condition, but the paint may need touch-ups.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting and updating the kitchen countertops — Updating the kitchen countertops and painting the interior walls can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, which can increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Updating the bathroom shower area — Updating the bathroom shower area can improve the home's functionality and appeal, which can increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Refinishing or replacing the hardwood flooring — Refinishing or replacing the hardwood flooring can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, which can increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the home's curb appeal and exterior aesthetics, which can increase its resale value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cecil S. Collins Elementary Middle Russell O. Brackman Middle School F NJ #226/431 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Barnegat High School F NJ #265/399 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barnegat Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3416470
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $63,645
• Composite: 31.15/100
• National rank: #6059
• State rank: #285 of 472 in NJ

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Barnegat

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #310
• US rank: #9556

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 586,991 people
• City population: 26,866
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,866
• Household income: $93,584
• Rent vs Own: 11.4% rent · 88.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.01%
• Current HPI: 344.3189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $114,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $114,000 MOMLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $119,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $119,000 MOMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $129,000 MOMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $129,000 BRIGHT MLS