305 Vineyard

Hardin, IL 62047

$114,900B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,561 sqft · Built 1932 · SingleFamily · Pending · 205 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,182/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $191/mo
• Annual: $2,295/yr
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.13%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $32,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,190 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Calhoun CUSD 40 (rural): math 24% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #320 of 620 in IL (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Calhoun High School (math 30% / reading 30%, grade F, #179 of 693 statewide, top 27%, 160 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 41% district-wide (41 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Calhoun County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Calhoun County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.