305 Vineyard · Hardin, IL 62047

$114,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,561 sqft · SingleFamily · 205 Days on market

Built 1932 0.26 ac lot Est $186k · 38% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW PAINT AND NEW PICTURES! Motivated Sellers! Enjoy peaceful living in this 3 bedroom home, 1 bath home nestled on a quiet dead end road in Hardin, IL! Designed for convenience, the home offers main level living with easy accessibility. Recent updates provide peace of mind and comfort, including a newer roof, appliances, AC, furnace, hot water heater, and bathroom vanity and toilet. The property is set in a very private location with a quiet neighborhood feel - perfect for those who value privacy while still being close to town amenities. Home is located out of the flood plain

Key facts

• Newer ac
• Main level living
• Newer furnace

Tags

• MAIN LEVEL LIVING
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• NEWER AC
• NEWER FURNACE
• NEWER HOT WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,190 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Calhoun CUSD 40 (rural): math 24% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #320 of 620 in IL (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Calhoun High School (math 30% / reading 30%, grade F, #179 of 693 statewide, top 27%, 160 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 41% district-wide (41 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Calhoun County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Calhoun County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $101,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.13%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,759
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
305 Vineyard	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,561 (0%)	0mo	$114,900	$74	100
207 N County Rd	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,428 (-8%)	18mo	$140,000	$98	68
102 Mary St	0.50mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,500 (-4%)	4mo	$179,000	$119	56
201 Barry St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+2%)	2mo	$210,000	$132	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.34% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $22,075
• Equity at exit: $47,477

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $66,539
• Equity at exit: $70,066

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62047

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,182 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,107/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $940

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $256	-5% $224	+0% $191	+5% $159	+10% $126
Rent	-10% $98	-5% $145	+0% $191	+5% $238	+10% $285
Rate	-1.0pp $249	-0.5pp $221	base $191	+0.5pp $162	+1.0pp $131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   price $114,900
3. 2026-02-04
   price $120,000
4. 2025-11-05
   price $130,000
5. 2025-10-01
   listed $139,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,107 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,857 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: +$751/yr (+$63/mo · 67.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$1,107
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,135
• − Management: −$1,135
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $457
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$110
• After-tax cash flow: $2,186/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calhoun CUSD 40
• NCES district ID: 1718180
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $49,447
• Composite: 22.01/100
• National rank: #8205
• State rank: #320 of 620 in IL

Livability — Hardin

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1190
• US rank: #22480

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hardin, IL
• Population (ZIP): 1,833

Population outlook (Calhoun County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,426 people
• By 2030: 4,129 · -6.7%
• By 2040: 3,519 · -20.5%
• By 2050: 2,925 · -33.9%
• By 2075: 1,864 · -57.9%
• By 2100: 1,144 · -74.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calhoun

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 20.9% · R 76.8% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -63.4pp toward R · 2008: 7.5pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+49.4 2016: R+38.3 2012: R+14.0 2008: D+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.34%
• Current HPI: 109.8367
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-17.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $114,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $130,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Listed $139,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,107 · +14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.