87 Tamblin Ridge Trl

Cleveland, NY 13028

$230,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 602 sqft · Built 2010 · SingleFamily · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $818/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$222
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$172
• Net cashflow: $-783/mo
• Annual: $-9,391/yr
• Cap rate: 2.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.58%
• DSCR: 0.35
• 1% rule: 0.36%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-783 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $92k (60.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $82k (64.5% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $82k (64.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (9.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,137 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Square Central School District (suburban): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #507 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aura A Cole Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,519 of 2,108 statewide, top 74%, 401 students, 56% FRL); Central Square Middle School (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #587 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 833 students, 45% FRL); Paul V Moore High School (math 91% / reading 75%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 1,101 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 33% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $230k implies a 667% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 3.1% in Cleveland — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.