87 Tamblin Ridge Trl · Cleveland, NY 13028

$230,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 602 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2010 8.81 ac lot $382/sqft · 59% above area Est $276k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Cash flow +2.6/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to your own private haven with this charming cabin nestled on 8+ acres of serenity. Tucked away from the noise of the world, this property offers 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath. The perfect blend of peace, comfort and modern comfort with it's beautiful hardwood floors through out, stunning 10 FOOT CEILINGS, granite counters, not only in the kitchen but bathroom as well. Surrounded by nature, the cabin has solar panels and a permanent generator. Cozy up by the fire at night, hike a trail, and fish. Enjoy the views of Francis Pond! Explore or relax. The choice is yours. Super close to Oneida Lake

Key facts

• 8 acres
• 10 foot ceilings
• Solar panels

Tags

• 8 ACRES
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• 10 FOOT CEILINGS
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• SOLAR PANELS
• PERMANENT GENERATOR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Photovoltaic power production; Propane available (owned tank)
• Home design: Single-story house; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Metal roof; Wood siding; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Built (existing); Wood siding construction; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Dirt and gravel driveways; Enclosed porch; Porch (screened); Private yard; Shed(s) / additional storage; Propane tank (owned); Photovoltaic panels; Secluded, rural and irregular lot; Seasonal road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Granite counters; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Cathedral ceilings; Separate/formal living room; Granite counters; Pantry; Storage; Natural woodwork
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry; Tankless water heater; Generator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-783 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $92k (60.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $82k (64.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $82k (64.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 3.1% in Cleveland — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,137 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Square Central School District (suburban): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #507 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aura A Cole Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,519 of 2,108 statewide, top 74%, 401 students, 56% FRL); Central Square Middle School (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #587 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 833 students, 45% FRL); Paul V Moore High School (math 91% / reading 75%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 1,101 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 33% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (9.7% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $230k implies a 667% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $81,761 (64.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.36% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.58%
• DSCR: 0.35
• GRM: 23.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,327
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -16.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $70,486
• Equity at exit: $202,045

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $245,365
• Equity at exit: $430,345

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13028

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 23.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $818 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,518/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$172
• Net cashflow: $-783

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,808

Max offer price $91,752

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-652	-5% $-717	+0% $-783	+5% $-848	+10% $-913
Rent	-10% $-847	-5% $-815	+0% $-783	+5% $-750	+10% $-718
Rate	-1.0pp $-667	-0.5pp $-724	base $-783	+0.5pp $-842	+1.0pp $-903

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $230,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $230,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $230,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $230,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $230,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    listed $230,000 Active 605-char remark
18. 2010-08-25
    soldstatus $29,995

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,518 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,703 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,184/yr (+$99/mo · 78.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,518
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$785
• − Management: −$785
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$14,001
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,360
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,031/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Square Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606900
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $55,807
• Composite: 35.05/100
• National rank: #5035
• State rank: #507 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1137
• US rank: #23552

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 913

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.69%
• Current HPI: 303.5003
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+666.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $230,000 CNYIS
• 2010-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $29,995 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,518 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.