Shiloh 1640 Plan

Dothan, AL 36301

$277,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,640 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 148 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,139/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,557
• Tax + insurance: −$495
• HOA: −$16
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-378/mo
• Annual: $-4,533/yr
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.45%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $83,111

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-378 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (23.0% below list).
• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $214k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#146 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Dothan City (urban): math 19% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #73 of 129 in AL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Selma Street Elementary School (math 13% / reading 33%, grade F, #431 of 627 statewide, top 69%, 413 students, 93% FRL); Dothan Preparatory Academy (math 12% / reading 38%, grade F, #163 of 257 statewide, top 64%, 1,133 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 59% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 620 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 140d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 463 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Houston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,139/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?