Shiloh 1640 Plan · Dothan, AL 36301

$277,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,640 sqft · SingleFamily · 194 Days on market

Good condition $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Shiloh 1640 is a comfortable single-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. The open layout creates a natural flow between living, dining, and kitchen spaces, making everyday life easy and enjoyable. Covered porches front and back round out this well-designed plan.

Key facts

• Covered porches
• Open layout
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED PORCHES

🏗️ New construction. The $277,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $288,200.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-467 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#146 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Dothan City (urban): math 19% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #73 of 129 in AL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Selma Street Elementary School (math 13% / reading 33%, grade F, #431 of 627 statewide, top 69%, 413 students, 93% FRL); Dothan Preparatory Academy (math 12% / reading 38%, grade F, #163 of 257 statewide, top 64%, 1,133 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 59% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 690 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 463 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,951/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,064 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.94%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,200
• List price: $277,900
• Delta: -3.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
281 S Bend Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,640 (0%)	4mo	$277,900	$169	93
273 S Bend Ave	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,644 (+0%)	1mo	$278,000	$169	90
291 S Bend Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-7%)	4mo	$262,900	$172	81
317 S Bend Ave	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,742 (+6%)	4mo	$284,900	$164	79
301 S Bend Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-13%)	6mo	$250,000	$174	69
309 S Bend Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-13%)	6mo	$249,900	$174	69
213 Foxfire Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+2%)	7mo	$265,000	$158	67
215 Foxfire Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-2%)	14mo	$265,000	$166	60
111 Park Ridge Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,884 (+15%)	3mo	$305,000	$162	60
109 Talquin Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,635 (-0%)	16mo	$244,000	$149	56
106 Needle Pne	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,836 (+12%)	5mo	$185,000	$101	47
101 Talquin Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,755 (+7%)	21mo	$262,500	$150	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-76,385
• Equity at exit: $42,972

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-104,628
• Equity at exit: $24,918

Cash invested: $80,696 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.0 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $272,400 ($171/sqft)
• Median days on market: 194 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 36301

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 690
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,951 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,511
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$360 /mo · $4,323/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,541

Max offer price $220,671

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-268	-5% $-367	+0% $-467	+5% $-566	+10% $-666
Rent	-10% $-621	-5% $-544	+0% $-467	+5% $-390	+10% $-313
Rate	-1.0pp $-322	-0.5pp $-393	base $-467	+0.5pp $-541	+1.0pp $-617

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,050
• Closing costs: $8,646
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
516 Sprucepine Rd Dothan, AL	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,700	$1.03	44d	1	0.79mi
408 Sprucepine Rd Dothan, AL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,750	$1.03	10d	1	0.88mi
2100 Saddlewood Trl Dothan, AL	3.0	2.0	2188	$1,950	$0.89	0d	1	0.94mi
2100 Saddlewood Trl Dothan, AL	3.0	2.0	2188	$1,950	$0.89	5d	1	0.94mi
1605 Ivy Dr Dothan, AL	3.0	2.0	1888	$3,400	$1.80	184d	1	1.17mi
306 Hidden Creek Cir #1 Dothan, AL	2.0	2.0	1233	$1,450	$1.18	184d	1	1.34mi
108 Hidden Sunset Dr Dothan, AL	3.0	3.0	1358	$1,500	$1.10	15d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price available (active listing)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee approximately $16.67

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric serviceCentral HVAC (heat pump and central air)
• Home design: New construction planSingle-family home (plan)
• Exterior features: Asphalt and metal roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric and heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan: Shiloh 1640Living area approximately 1640

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $277,900 Active 194 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $277,900 Active 193 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $277,900 Active 192 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $277,900 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $277,900 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $277,900 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $277,900 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $277,900 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $277,900 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $277,900 Active 184 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $277,900 Active 183 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $277,900 Active 182 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $277,900 Active 181 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $277,900 Active 180 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $277,900 Active 179 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $277,900 Active 178 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $277,900 Active 177 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $277,900 Active 176 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $277,900 Active 175 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $277,900 Active 174 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $277,900 Active 173 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $277,900 Active 172 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $277,900 Active 171 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $277,900 Active 170 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $277,900 Active 169 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $277,900 Active 168 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $277,900 Active 167 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $277,900 Active 166 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $277,900 Active 165 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $277,900 Active 164 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $277,900 Active 163 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $277,900 Active 162 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $277,900 Active 161 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $277,900 Active 160 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $277,900 Active 159 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $277,900 Active 158 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $277,900 Active 157 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $277,900 Active 156 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $277,900 Active 155 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $277,900 Active 154 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $277,900 Active 153 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $277,900 Active 152 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $277,900 Active 151 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $277,900 Active 150 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $277,900 Active 149 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $277,900 Active 148 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $277,900 Active 147 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $277,900 Active 146 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $277,900 Active 145 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $277,900 Active 143 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,144
• − Property taxes: −$4,323
• − Insurance: −$1,441
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,873
• − Management: −$1,873
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$8,384
• Taxable loss: −$10,821
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,597
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Shiloh 1640 is a well-maintained single-story home with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It offers a comfortable living space with potential for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and adds value ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Upgrades the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances bathrooms and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 23/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Selma Street Elementary School F AL #431/627 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 High Carver 9th Grade Academy

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dothan City
• NCES district ID: 0101230
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,279
• Composite: 24.56/100
• National rank: #7640
• State rank: #73 of 129 in AL

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Dothan

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #13662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dothan, AL
• County: Houston · 110,280 people
• City population: 47,783
• Metro: Dothan, AL
• Population (ZIP): 38,627
• Household income: $49,124
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,280 people
• By 2030: 112,668 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 116,149 · +5.3%
• By 2050: 117,805 · +6.8%
• By 2075: 118,577 · +7.5%
• By 2100: 110,940 · +0.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.7% · R 73.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -40.8pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+47.6 2012: R+40.3 2008: R+40.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.46%
• Current HPI: 161.1212
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price available (active listing)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee approximately $16.67

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric serviceCentral HVAC (heat pump and central air)
• Home design: New construction planSingle-family home (plan)
• Exterior features: Asphalt and metal roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric and heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan: Shiloh 1640Living area approximately 1640