1104 Cantina Dr

Chesterfield, MO 63141

$215,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,736 sqft · Built 1969 · Townhouse · Pending · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,078/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$249
• HOA: −$605
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-341/mo
• Annual: $-4,088/yr
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.79%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-341 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (28.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (3.4% below list).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#110 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Parkway C-2 (suburban): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #18 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: River Bend Elem. (math 42% / reading 61%, grade C-, #268 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 423 students, 18% FRL); Central Middle (math 53% / reading 64%, grade B, #24 of 391 statewide, top 6%, 925 students, 14% FRL); Central High (math 53% / reading 73%, grade B-, #26 of 521 statewide, top 5%, 1,244 students, 13% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.9% in Chesterfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?