5214 Lawn Arbor Dr

Houston, TX 77066

$255,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,442 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,090/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$546
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-290/mo
• Annual: $-3,484/yr
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.88%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $71,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-290 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (18.0% below list).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenwood Forest El (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 672 students, 75% FRL); Wunderlich Int (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 1,316 students, 77% FRL); Klein Forest H S (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,481 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 37% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Klein ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?