5214 Lawn Arbor Dr · Houston, TX 77066

$255,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,442 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1973 9,361 sqft lot $104/sqft · 11% below area Est $286k · 11% under $58/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

REDUCED/EXCELLENT VALUE. QUARTERS (NOT COUNTED IN SQUARE FOOTAGE) IN CONVERTED 3 CAR GARAGE SPACE,KITCHEN,BEDROOM,BATH, LIVING AREA/1 CAR GARAGE SPACE NOT PART OF QUARTERS/AREA COULD BE CONVERTED BACK TO 3 CAR GARAGE. CORNER LOT/HOUSE HAS BEEN UPGRADED/IS IN BEAUTIFUL CONDITION. CLEAN, READY TO MOVE INTO. NEIGHBORHOOD HAS 12 YEARS OF KLEIN SCHOOLS IN SUBDIVISION/CLOSE WALKING DISTANCE TO BANKS,RESTAURANTS,GROCERY STORE,GYM,ALL KINDS OF SHOPPING.

Key facts

• 9,361 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Greenwood Forest association; Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, and tennis courts; Association fee $695 annually (covers common areas); Community features include pool, curbs, and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Additional parking; Driveway
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces south
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1973
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Fenced backyard; Private yard; Paved driveway; Garage apartment; Corner lot with side yard; Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second floor) — 13 x 16; Bedroom (Second floor) — 14 x 13; Bedroom (Second floor) — 12 x 12; Bedroom (Second floor) — 11 x 13; Office (First floor) — 13 x 13; Living room (First floor) — 18 x 17; Dining room (First floor) — 13 x 11
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas fireplace; Intercom; Laminate counters; Pantry; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-290 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenwood Forest El (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 672 students, 75% FRL); Wunderlich Int (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 1,316 students, 77% FRL); Klein Forest H S (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,481 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 37% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Klein ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,719 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.88%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,785
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -10.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5339 Dana Leigh Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,604 (+7%)	2mo	$374,900	$144	78
105 Old Bridge Lk	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,622 (+7%)	1mo	$269,900	$103	60
14041 Cashel Forest Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,222 (-9%)	3mo	$225,000	$101	59
4714 Cashel Castle Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,362 (-3%)	1mo	$249,900	$106	58
4731 N Cashel Cir	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,222 (-9%)	1mo	$249,000	$112	57
14205 Cashel Forest Dr	0.51mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,268 (-7%)	2mo	$299,900	$132	55
4726 Cashel Castle Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,250 (-8%)	1mo	$135,200	$60	54
5111 Olympia Fields Ln	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,801 (+15%)	2mo	$373,500	$133	51
4903 Charade Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	2,075 (-15%)	2mo	$287,000	$138	51
5323 Olympia Fields Ln	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,806 (+15%)	0mo	$399,999	$143	49
5614 Spanish Oak Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,731 (+12%)	1mo	$335,000	$123	46
202 Old Bridge Lk	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,619 (+7%)	3mo	$299,990	$115	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.02% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-43,917
• Equity at exit: $61,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-64,629
• Equity at exit: $64,143

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77066

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,090 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$440 /mo · $5,282/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,458

Max offer price $203,719

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-146	-5% $-218	+0% $-290	+5% $-362	+10% $-435
Rent	-10% $-455	-5% $-373	+0% $-290	+5% $-208	+10% $-125
Rate	-1.0pp $-162	-0.5pp $-225	base $-290	+0.5pp $-356	+1.0pp $-424

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4703 Cashel Cir Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1722	$1,950	$1.13	20d	1	0.48mi
4622 Falling Sun Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2485	$2,500	$1.01	45d	1	0.97mi
4202 Brandemere Way St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,695	$1.07	45d	1	1.12mi
4807 Wellington Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2876	$2,500	$0.87	45d	1	1.15mi
5135 Westerham Pl Unit 1262307P Houston, TX	5.0	3.5	3358	$17,582	$5.24	23d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $255,000 Pending 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $255,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $270,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $270,000 Pending 37 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Pending 36 DOM
11. 2026-04-25
    listed $270,000 Active 858-char remark
12. 2025-12-14
    historical
13. 2025-08-20
    status Active
14. 2025-08-14
    status Pending
15. 2025-08-04
    status Active
16. 2025-08-03
    historical Active Under Contract
17. 2025-07-29
    status Pending
18. 2025-06-02
    listed $275,000 Active
19. 2010-03-04
    soldstatus
20. 2010-02-02
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    REDUCED/EXCELLENT VALUE. QUARTERS (NOT COUNTED IN SQUARE FOOTAGE) IN CONVERTED 3 CAR GARAGE SPACE,KITCHEN,BEDROOM,BATH, LIVING AREA/1 CAR GARAGE SPACE NOT PART OF QUARTERS/AREA COULD BE CONVERTED BACK TO 3 CAR GARAGE. CORNER LOT/HOUSE HAS BEEN UPGRADED/IS IN BEAUTIFUL CONDITION. CLEAN, READY TO MOVE INTO. NEIGHBORHOOD HAS 12 YEARS OF KLEIN SCHOOLS IN SUBDIVISION/CLOSE WALKING DISTANCE TO BANKS,RESTAURANTS,GROCERY STORE,GYM,ALL KINDS OF SHOPPING.

21. 2010-02-01
    historical

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    REDUCED/EXCELLENT VALUE. QUARTERS (NOT COUNTED IN SQUARE FOOTAGE) IN CONVERTED 3 CAR GARAGE SPACE,KITCHEN,BEDROOM,BATH, LIVING AREA/1 CAR GARAGE SPACE NOT PART OF QUARTERS/AREA COULD BE CONVERTED BACK TO 3 CAR GARAGE. CORNER LOT/HOUSE HAS BEEN UPGRADED/IS IN BEAUTIFUL CONDITION. CLEAN, READY TO MOVE INTO. NEIGHBORHOOD HAS 12 YEARS OF KLEIN SCHOOLS IN SUBDIVISION/CLOSE WALKING DISTANCE TO BANKS,RESTAURANTS,GROCERY STORE,GYM,ALL KINDS OF SHOPPING.

22. 2009-11-04
    listed $125,500

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    REDUCED/EXCELLENT VALUE. QUARTERS (NOT COUNTED IN SQUARE FOOTAGE) IN CONVERTED 3 CAR GARAGE SPACE,KITCHEN,BEDROOM,BATH, LIVING AREA/1 CAR GARAGE SPACE NOT PART OF QUARTERS/AREA COULD BE CONVERTED BACK TO 3 CAR GARAGE. CORNER LOT/HOUSE HAS BEEN UPGRADED/IS IN BEAUTIFUL CONDITION. CLEAN, READY TO MOVE INTO. NEIGHBORHOOD HAS 12 YEARS OF KLEIN SCHOOLS IN SUBDIVISION/CLOSE WALKING DISTANCE TO BANKS,RESTAURANTS,GROCERY STORE,GYM,ALL KINDS OF SHOPPING.

23. 2009-11-03
    historical
24. 2009-09-23
    listed $147,500
25. 2007-12-19
    historical
26. 2007-08-14
    listed $149,900
27. 2001-05-22
    soldstatus
28. 1999-07-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,282 · $440/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,282 · $440/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$5,282
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,007
• − Management: −$2,007
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$7,884
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,892
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,311
• Household income: $87,138
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 815.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% Black 23% Two or more races 21% Asian 15% White 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 36% Vietnamese 8% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Current HPI: 261.1086
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+70.1% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-08-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-08-03 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2025-07-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2010-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-02-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-02-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-11-04 Listed $125,500 HARMLS
• 2009-11-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-09-23 Listed $147,500 HARMLS
• 2007-12-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-08-14 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2001-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,282 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.