13 Murphy Rd

Fort Montgomery, NY 10922

$429,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,554 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,677/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax + insurance: −$935
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$772
• Net cashflow: $-279/mo
• Annual: $-3,352/yr
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.79%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $120,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $429k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-279 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $380k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $368k (14.3% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $368k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#531 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Highland Falls Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #328 of 590 in NY (top 56%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fort Montgomery Elementary School (201 students, 52% FRL); Highland Falls Intermediate School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 324 students, 56% FRL); James I O'Neill High School (math 87% / reading 70%, grade A-, #568 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 424 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $147k; list at $429k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.