11274 Allen Dr

Bon Aqua Junction, TN 37098

$172,900C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,322 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,620/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $241/mo
• Annual: $2,896/yr
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.98%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $48,412

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $173k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (6.3% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#162 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hickman County (rural): math 20% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #107 of 139 in TN (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: East Hickman Elementary (446 students, 0% FRL); East Hickman Middle School (math 7% / reading 16%, grade F, #247 of 333 statewide, top 75%, 385 students, 0% FRL); East Hickman High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #259 of 332 statewide, top 79%, 468 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Hickman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hickman County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $173k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.0% in Bon Aqua Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.