9592 Packer John Rd

Smiths Ferry, ID 83611

$399,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Pending · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,959/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax + insurance: −$666
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $-426/mo
• Annual: $-5,111/yr
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.56%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $111,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-426 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $338k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (26.0% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $296k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#202 in ID) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing B; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cascade District (rural): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #94 of 133 in ID (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 411 active listings in the ZIP; 250 units permitted in Valley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Valley County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 10 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.