9592 Packer John Rd · Smiths Ferry, ID 83611

$399,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2000 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully furnished retreat set on a private acre in the heart of Smiths Ferry, this refined four-bedroom, two-bath home offers 1,792 square feet of thoughtfully curated living space. Designed for comfort and efficiency, the home features a new roof, smart HVAC with heat pump, tankless water heater, and seamless LVP flooring throughout. The 2024 designer kitchen is appointed with new smart appliances and contemporary finishes, while a cozy fireplace enhances a versatile living room or office retreat. A split-bedroom layout provides privacy with generously sized bedrooms. Outdoor living and storage are elevated with a powered 12x30 garage/shed featuring a power, mini-split system and built-in shelving, complemented by an additional 10x12 storage structure. Located minutes from the North Fork Payette River, Cougar Mountain Lodge, and expansive state and national forest lands, this property offers effortless access to year-round recreation. Within an hour of Tamarack Resort, McCall, and Boise, this home blends mountain serenity with modern luxury.

Key facts

• Designer kitchen
• Private acre
• Smart hvac

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRE
• NEW ROOF
• SMART HVAC
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• SEAMLESS LVP FLOORING
• DESIGNER KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-426 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $338k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#202 in ID) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing B; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cascade District (rural): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #94 of 133 in ID (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 411 active listings in the ZIP; 250 units permitted in Valley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valley County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $295,909 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.56%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-91,885
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-114,762
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83611

• Home prices YoY: -27.9%
• Active inventory: 411
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,959 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$500 /mo · $5,998/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $-426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,498

Max offer price $338,266

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-150	-5% $-288	+0% $-426	+5% $-564	+10% $-702
Rent	-10% $-660	-5% $-543	+0% $-426	+5% $-309	+10% $-192
Rate	-1.0pp $-225	-0.5pp $-324	base $-426	+0.5pp $-530	+1.0pp $-635

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-04-22
   soldstatus Sold 1056-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1056 chars)

   Fully furnished retreat set on a private acre in the heart of Smiths Ferry, this refined four-bedroom, two-bath home offers 1,792 square feet of thoughtfully curated living space. Designed for comfort and efficiency, the home features a new roof, smart HVAC with heat pump, tankless water heater, and seamless LVP flooring throughout. The 2024 designer kitchen is appointed with new smart appliances and contemporary finishes, while a cozy fireplace enhances a versatile living room or office retreat. A split-bedroom layout provides privacy with generously sized bedrooms. Outdoor living and storage are elevated with a powered 12x30 garage/shed featuring a power, mini-split system and built-in shelving, complemented by an additional 10x12 storage structure. Located minutes from the North Fork Payette River, Cougar Mountain Lodge, and expansive state and national forest lands, this property offers effortless access to year-round recreation. Within an hour of Tamarack Resort, McCall, and Boise, this home blends mountain serenity with modern luxury.

2. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-18
   status Pending 1056-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1056 chars)

   Fully furnished retreat set on a private acre in the heart of Smiths Ferry, this refined four-bedroom, two-bath home offers 1,792 square feet of thoughtfully curated living space. Designed for comfort and efficiency, the home features a new roof, smart HVAC with heat pump, tankless water heater, and seamless LVP flooring throughout. The 2024 designer kitchen is appointed with new smart appliances and contemporary finishes, while a cozy fireplace enhances a versatile living room or office retreat. A split-bedroom layout provides privacy with generously sized bedrooms. Outdoor living and storage are elevated with a powered 12x30 garage/shed featuring a power, mini-split system and built-in shelving, complemented by an additional 10x12 storage structure. Located minutes from the North Fork Payette River, Cougar Mountain Lodge, and expansive state and national forest lands, this property offers effortless access to year-round recreation. Within an hour of Tamarack Resort, McCall, and Boise, this home blends mountain serenity with modern luxury.

4. 2026-02-21
   price $399,900

   Show marketing remark (1056 chars)

   Fully furnished retreat set on a private acre in the heart of Smiths Ferry, this refined four-bedroom, two-bath home offers 1,792 square feet of thoughtfully curated living space. Designed for comfort and efficiency, the home features a new roof, smart HVAC with heat pump, tankless water heater, and seamless LVP flooring throughout. The 2024 designer kitchen is appointed with new smart appliances and contemporary finishes, while a cozy fireplace enhances a versatile living room or office retreat. A split-bedroom layout provides privacy with generously sized bedrooms. Outdoor living and storage are elevated with a powered 12x30 garage/shed featuring a power, mini-split system and built-in shelving, complemented by an additional 10x12 storage structure. Located minutes from the North Fork Payette River, Cougar Mountain Lodge, and expansive state and national forest lands, this property offers effortless access to year-round recreation. Within an hour of Tamarack Resort, McCall, and Boise, this home blends mountain serenity with modern luxury.

5. 2026-02-21
   price $399,900 1056-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1056 chars)

   Fully furnished retreat set on a private acre in the heart of Smiths Ferry, this refined four-bedroom, two-bath home offers 1,792 square feet of thoughtfully curated living space. Designed for comfort and efficiency, the home features a new roof, smart HVAC with heat pump, tankless water heater, and seamless LVP flooring throughout. The 2024 designer kitchen is appointed with new smart appliances and contemporary finishes, while a cozy fireplace enhances a versatile living room or office retreat. A split-bedroom layout provides privacy with generously sized bedrooms. Outdoor living and storage are elevated with a powered 12x30 garage/shed featuring a power, mini-split system and built-in shelving, complemented by an additional 10x12 storage structure. Located minutes from the North Fork Payette River, Cougar Mountain Lodge, and expansive state and national forest lands, this property offers effortless access to year-round recreation. Within an hour of Tamarack Resort, McCall, and Boise, this home blends mountain serenity with modern luxury.

6. 2026-01-31
   listed $410,000 Active
7. 2026-01-23
   price $410,000 1056-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1056 chars)

   Fully furnished retreat set on a private acre in the heart of Smiths Ferry, this refined four-bedroom, two-bath home offers 1,792 square feet of thoughtfully curated living space. Designed for comfort and efficiency, the home features a new roof, smart HVAC with heat pump, tankless water heater, and seamless LVP flooring throughout. The 2024 designer kitchen is appointed with new smart appliances and contemporary finishes, while a cozy fireplace enhances a versatile living room or office retreat. A split-bedroom layout provides privacy with generously sized bedrooms. Outdoor living and storage are elevated with a powered 12x30 garage/shed featuring a power, mini-split system and built-in shelving, complemented by an additional 10x12 storage structure. Located minutes from the North Fork Payette River, Cougar Mountain Lodge, and expansive state and national forest lands, this property offers effortless access to year-round recreation. Within an hour of Tamarack Resort, McCall, and Boise, this home blends mountain serenity with modern luxury.

8. 2026-01-05
   listed $425,000 Active 1056-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1056 chars)

   Fully furnished retreat set on a private acre in the heart of Smiths Ferry, this refined four-bedroom, two-bath home offers 1,792 square feet of thoughtfully curated living space. Designed for comfort and efficiency, the home features a new roof, smart HVAC with heat pump, tankless water heater, and seamless LVP flooring throughout. The 2024 designer kitchen is appointed with new smart appliances and contemporary finishes, while a cozy fireplace enhances a versatile living room or office retreat. A split-bedroom layout provides privacy with generously sized bedrooms. Outdoor living and storage are elevated with a powered 12x30 garage/shed featuring a power, mini-split system and built-in shelving, complemented by an additional 10x12 storage structure. Located minutes from the North Fork Payette River, Cougar Mountain Lodge, and expansive state and national forest lands, this property offers effortless access to year-round recreation. Within an hour of Tamarack Resort, McCall, and Boise, this home blends mountain serenity with modern luxury.

9. 2025-08-13
   historical
10. 2025-06-26
    price $390,000
11. 2025-06-26
    price $390,000
12. 2025-05-19
    price $399,000
13. 2025-05-19
    price $399,000
14. 2025-05-02
    price $450,000
15. 2025-05-01
    price $450,000
16. 2025-03-27
    listed $475,000 Active
17. 2025-03-27
    listed $475,000 Active
18. 2023-04-13
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2023-04-13
    soldstatus Closed
20. 2023-03-01
    status Pending
21. 2023-03-01
    historical
22. 2023-02-24
    price $280,000
23. 2022-09-14
    price $285,000
24. 2022-08-11
    listed $280,000
25. 2022-08-09
    listed $290,000 Active
26. 2021-10-22
    historical
27. 2021-08-07
    status Active
28. 2021-08-07
    historical
29. 2021-07-22
    price $285,000
30. 2021-04-23
    listed $285,000
31. 2021-04-23
    listed $300,000 Active
32. 2018-09-12
    listed $149,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$5,998
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,841
• − Management: −$2,841
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$12,204
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,929
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cascade District
• NCES district ID: 1600630
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,227
• Composite: 36.83/100
• National rank: #9162
• State rank: #94 of 133 in ID

Livability — Smiths Ferry

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #22743

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B- Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smiths Ferry, ID
• Population (ZIP): 2,997

Population outlook (Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,964 people
• By 2030: 11,279 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,584 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 11,754 · +7.2%
• By 2075: 12,246 · +11.7%
• By 2100: 11,948 · +9.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Dutch 6% Portuguese 5%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Valley

• 2024 margin: R (+18.6) · D 39.6% · R 58.2% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.6 2020: R+13.7 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+11.6 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.61%
• Current HPI: 307.0117
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

+168.4% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Sold (MLS) — IMLS
• 2026-03-24 Pending — MCAOR
• 2026-03-18 Pending — IMLS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $399,900 MCAOR
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $399,900 IMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listed $410,000 MCAOR
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $410,000 IMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $425,000 IMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listing Removed — IMLS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $390,000 MCAOR
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $390,000 IMLS
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $399,000 MCAOR
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $399,000 IMLS
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $450,000 MCAOR
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $450,000 IMLS
• 2025-03-27 Listed $475,000 MCAOR
• 2025-03-27 Listed $475,000 IMLS
• 2023-04-13 Sold (MLS) — MCAOR
• 2023-04-13 Sold (MLS) — IMLS
• 2023-03-01 Pending — IMLS
• 2023-03-01 Delisted — MCAOR
• 2023-02-24 Price Changed $280,000 IMLS
• 2022-09-14 Price Changed $285,000 IMLS
• 2022-08-11 Listed $280,000 MCAOR
• 2022-08-09 Listed $290,000 IMLS
• 2021-10-22 Listing Removed — IMLS
• 2021-08-07 Relisted — IMLS
• 2021-08-07 Listing Removed — IMLS
• 2021-07-22 Price Changed $285,000 IMLS
• 2021-04-23 Listed $300,000 IMLS
• 2021-04-23 Listed $285,000 MCAOR
• 2018-09-12 Listed $149,000 MCAOR

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2023): $494 · +66.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.