612 Cedarwood Ave

Horizon City, TX 79928

$263,950D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,243 sqft · Built 2023 · Other · Active · 794 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,928/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax + insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-17/mo
• Annual: $-202/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $73,906

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $264k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-202/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (27.0% below list).
• It's been on market 794 days — a 12% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $193k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#619 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr Sue A Shook School (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 1,058 students, 68% FRL); Col John O Ensor Middle (math 30% / reading 38%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,173 students, 70% FRL); Eastlake H S (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,851 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 2098 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 14770% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 794 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.