612 Cedarwood Ave · Horizon City, TX 79928

$263,950

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,243 sqft · Other public records · 794 Days on market

Built 2023 4,989 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to efficiency and elegance in this charming Spanish-style home! With 4 beds, 2 baths, and 1,240 sqft of brand-new construction, this residence embodies modern comfort. Enjoy hosting family and friends in wonderful living spaces with 9-12 foot ceilings, open concept kitchen, granite counter tops, tile backsplash, modern fixtures, and stainless steel appliances. Owner's Suite has amazing high ceilings, large windows for light, walk-in closet, and ensuite bath with tub to relax after a long day. All bedrooms have nice plush carpets which are soft on the feet and your main living area features wonderful ceramic tile for easy maintenance and luxury appeal. Efficiency is key, boasting a 5-star energy rating, tankless water heater, cellulose insulation, refrigerated air, centralized heating, and security system wiring. Welcome home to efficiency and impeccable standard features! Plans, prices, specifications, and any special promotions are subject to change without notice.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Granite counter tops
• Owner's suite

Tags

• SPANISH-STYLE HOME
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OWNER'S SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $264k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-202/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#619 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr Sue A Shook School (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 1,058 students, 68% FRL); Col John O Ensor Middle (math 30% / reading 38%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,173 students, 70% FRL); Eastlake H S (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,851 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 2093 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 794 days — a 12% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 14770% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,804 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 794 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-44,127
• Equity at exit: $39,356

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-40,956
• Equity at exit: $22,822

Cash invested: $73,906 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79928

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 2093
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,928 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $550/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,949

Max offer price $260,969

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $133	-5% $58	+0% $-17	+5% $-392	+10% $-483
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-93	+0% $-17	+5% $59	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $50	base $-17	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,988
• Closing costs: $7,918
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
737 Sculcoates St Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,735	$1.28	45d	1	0.44mi
732 Desert Sage Dr Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.0	1420	$1,635	$1.15	12d	1	0.62mi
732 Desert Sage Dr Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.0	1420	$1,635	$1.15	4d	1	0.62mi
13520 Eastlake Blvd Horizon City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,850	$1.92	4d	9	0.67mi
781 Croxdale St Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.0	1433	$1,800	$1.26	45d	1	0.75mi
13668 Garforth Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,675	$1.23	16d	1	0.91mi
14324 Desert Shadow Dr Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	16d	1	1.02mi
1181 Summer Rain St Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,750	$1.17	45d	1	1.10mi
304 Jim Hofher Pl El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1466	$1,600	$1.09	4d	1	1.28mi
305 De Palma Pl El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,635	$1.11	45d	1	1.29mi
13231 Kestrel Ave Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,595	$1.15	16d	1	1.32mi
13961 Victory Sky Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,850	$1.39	16d	1	1.48mi
13172 Willitoft Rd El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,450	$1.69	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $263,950 Active 794 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $263,950 Active 791 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $263,950 Active 790 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $263,950 Active 789 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $263,950 Active 788 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $263,950 Active 786 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $263,950 Active 783 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $263,950 Active 782 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $263,950 Active 781 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $263,950 Active 780 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $263,950 Active 777 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $263,950 Active 776 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $263,950 Active 775 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $263,950 Active 774 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $263,950 Active 773 DOM
16. 2026-04-18
    status Active 988-char remark

    Show marketing remark (988 chars)

    Welcome to efficiency and elegance in this charming Spanish-style home! With 4 beds, 2 baths, and 1,240 sqft of brand-new construction, this residence embodies modern comfort. Enjoy hosting family and friends in wonderful living spaces with 9-12 foot ceilings, open concept kitchen, granite counter tops, tile backsplash, modern fixtures, and stainless steel appliances. Owner's Suite has amazing high ceilings, large windows for light, walk-in closet, and ensuite bath with tub to relax after a long day. All bedrooms have nice plush carpets which are soft on the feet and your main living area features wonderful ceramic tile for easy maintenance and luxury appeal. Efficiency is key, boasting a 5-star energy rating, tankless water heater, cellulose insulation, refrigerated air, centralized heating, and security system wiring. Welcome home to efficiency and impeccable standard features! Plans, prices, specifications, and any special promotions are subject to change without notice.

17. 2026-04-16
    historical 988-char remark

    Show marketing remark (988 chars)

    Welcome to efficiency and elegance in this charming Spanish-style home! With 4 beds, 2 baths, and 1,240 sqft of brand-new construction, this residence embodies modern comfort. Enjoy hosting family and friends in wonderful living spaces with 9-12 foot ceilings, open concept kitchen, granite counter tops, tile backsplash, modern fixtures, and stainless steel appliances. Owner's Suite has amazing high ceilings, large windows for light, walk-in closet, and ensuite bath with tub to relax after a long day. All bedrooms have nice plush carpets which are soft on the feet and your main living area features wonderful ceramic tile for easy maintenance and luxury appeal. Efficiency is key, boasting a 5-star energy rating, tankless water heater, cellulose insulation, refrigerated air, centralized heating, and security system wiring. Welcome home to efficiency and impeccable standard features! Plans, prices, specifications, and any special promotions are subject to change without notice.

18. 2026-02-20
    historical $1,775
19. 2025-11-11
    listed $1,775
20. 2025-11-06
    historical $1,775
21. 2025-10-06
    listed $1,775
22. 2024-04-16
    listed $263,950 Active 988-char remark

    Show marketing remark (988 chars)

    Welcome to efficiency and elegance in this charming Spanish-style home! With 4 beds, 2 baths, and 1,240 sqft of brand-new construction, this residence embodies modern comfort. Enjoy hosting family and friends in wonderful living spaces with 9-12 foot ceilings, open concept kitchen, granite counter tops, tile backsplash, modern fixtures, and stainless steel appliances. Owner's Suite has amazing high ceilings, large windows for light, walk-in closet, and ensuite bath with tub to relax after a long day. All bedrooms have nice plush carpets which are soft on the feet and your main living area features wonderful ceramic tile for easy maintenance and luxury appeal. Efficiency is key, boasting a 5-star energy rating, tankless water heater, cellulose insulation, refrigerated air, centralized heating, and security system wiring. Welcome home to efficiency and impeccable standard features! Plans, prices, specifications, and any special promotions are subject to change without notice.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $550 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,830 · $403/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,280/yr (+$357/mo · 777.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,785
• − Property taxes: −$550
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,851
• − Management: −$1,851
• − Depreciation: −$7,679
• Taxable loss: −$4,899
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,176
• After-tax cash flow: $973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Socorro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840710
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,318
• Composite: 25.67/100
• National rank: #7396
• State rank: #624 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horizon City

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #619
• US rank: #11815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 86,599
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 86,599
• Household income: $76,643
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 838.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 39% White 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.72%
• Current HPI: 200.6454
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Relisted — GEPARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Rental Removed $1,775 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-11-11 Listed for Rent $1,775 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-11-06 Rental Removed $1,775 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-10-06 Listed for Rent $1,775 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-04-16 Listed $263,950 GEPARMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $550 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.