4 Canadian Woods Rd

Robertsville, NJ 07746

$989,000D

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,180 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,186
• Tax + insurance: −$1,417
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,722
• Net cashflow: $-125/mo
• Annual: $-1,504/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.54%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $276,920

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $989k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $967k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $820k (17.1% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($974k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $820k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#258 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Marlboro Township School District (suburban): math 51% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #42 of 472 in NJ (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Frank J. Dugan Elementary School (math 51% / reading 66%, grade B-, #135 of 1,303 statewide, top 11%, 649 students, 1% FRL); Marlboro Middle School (math 46% / reading 66%, grade B-, #58 of 431 statewide, top 14%, 1,004 students, 2% FRL) — zoned schools at 2% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $635k; list at $989k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.9% in Robertsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.