14993 Jesses Trl

Ninilchik, AK 99639

$151,000C-

3 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 2010 · SingleFamily · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,339/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$792
• Tax + insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $137/mo
• Annual: $1,650/yr
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.90%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $42,280

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $151k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (11.3% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#102 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: River City Academy (math 44% / reading 64%, grade C-, #7 of 61 statewide, top 10%, 91 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Kenai Peninsula Borough School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.