14993 Jesses Trl · Ninilchik, AK 99639

$151,000

3 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2010 9.02 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Incredible mountain view! 3 bedroom Caribou Hills cabin on 9 acres. This recreation destination sleeps 19 of your closest family and friends. This Cabin is well set up with a water holding talk, septic and Solar. Toyo oil heat maintains comfort when you don't have the cozy wood stove going. Bring your ATVs and get into some real fun!

Key facts

• Cozy wood stove
• Solar
• Septic

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEW
• WATER HOLDING TANK
• SEPTIC
• SOLAR
• TOYO OIL HEAT
• COZY WOOD STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $151k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#102 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $133,867 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.90%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $17,382
• Equity at exit: $57,781

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $61,994
• Equity at exit: $81,862

Cash invested: $42,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99639

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,339 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$792
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $784/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,165

Max offer price $151,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $223	-5% $180	+0% $137	+5% $95	+10% $52
Rent	-10% $32	-5% $85	+0% $137	+5% $190	+10% $243
Rate	-1.0pp $214	-0.5pp $176	base $137	+0.5pp $98	+1.0pp $59

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,750
• Closing costs: $4,530
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $151,000 Pending 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $151,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $151,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $151,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $151,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $151,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-04-10
   listed $151,000 Active 335-char remark

   Show marketing remark (335 chars)

   Incredible mountain view! 3 bedroom Caribou Hills cabin on 9 acres. This recreation destination sleeps 19 of your closest family and friends. This Cabin is well set up with a water holding talk, septic and Solar. Toyo oil heat maintains comfort when you don't have the cozy wood stove going. Bring your ATVs and get into some real fun!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $784 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,290 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$507/yr (+$42/mo · 64.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,458
• − Property taxes: −$784
• − Insurance: −$755
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,285
• − Management: −$1,285
• − Depreciation: −$4,393
• Taxable loss: −$896
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$215
• After-tax cash flow: $1,865/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Ninilchik

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #21258

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ninilchik, AK
• City population: 1,244
• Population (ZIP): 1,244

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 14% Native American 13% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 5% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Current HPI: 131.5079
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $151,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $784 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.