238 Overlook Ln

Rutledge, TN 37861

$199,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Built 2017 · Manufactured · Pending · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,340/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-125/mo
• Annual: $-1,498/yr
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.68%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (33.0% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#281 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Grainger County (rural): math 15% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #123 of 139 in TN (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rutledge Elementary School (math 10% / reading 23%, grade F, #734 of 952 statewide, top 78%, 340 students, 0% FRL); Rutledge Middle School (math 22% / reading 18%, grade F, #198 of 333 statewide, top 61%, 402 students, 0% FRL); Grainger High School (math 5% / reading 31%, grade F, #212 of 332 statewide, top 64%, 854 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 57% district-wide (57 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 74 units permitted in Grainger County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grainger County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.5% in Rutledge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.