238 Overlook Ln · Rutledge, TN 37861

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Manufactured public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2017 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2017 doublewide offers comfortable country living with modern convenience. The home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a functional, open layout ideal for everyday living. Enjoy the privacy and open space that comes with rural living while still being just minutes from schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Whether you're looking for room to garden, relax outdoors, or simply enjoy a quieter setting, this property provides the perfect balance of country charm and accessibility.

Key facts

• Open layout
• 1 acre lot
• Built 2017

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• PRIVACY AND OPEN SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (33.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.5% in Rutledge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#281 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Grainger County (rural): math 15% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #123 of 139 in TN (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rutledge Elementary School (math 10% / reading 23%, grade F, #734 of 952 statewide, top 78%, 340 students, 0% FRL); Rutledge Middle School (math 22% / reading 18%, grade F, #198 of 333 statewide, top 61%, 402 students, 0% FRL); Grainger High School (math 5% / reading 31%, grade F, #212 of 332 statewide, top 64%, 854 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 57% district-wide (57 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 74 units permitted in Grainger County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Grainger County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,952 (33.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.68%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,150
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
229 Silent Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+8%)	16mo	$130,000	$89	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $100,816
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.41×
• Total profit: $302,939
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37861

• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,340 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $618/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,498

Max offer price $177,841

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-12	-5% $-68	+0% $-125	+5% $-181	+10% $-238
Rent	-10% $-231	-5% $-178	+0% $-125	+5% $-72	+10% $-19
Rate	-1.0pp $-24	-0.5pp $-74	base $-125	+0.5pp $-177	+1.0pp $-229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-08
   soldstatus $197,000 Closed 509-char remark

   Show marketing remark (509 chars)

   2017 doublewide offers comfortable country living with modern convenience. The home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a functional, open layout ideal for everyday living. Enjoy the privacy and open space that comes with rural living while still being just minutes from schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Whether you're looking for room to garden, relax outdoors, or simply enjoy a quieter setting, this property provides the perfect balance of country charm and accessibility.

2. 2026-05-08
   soldstatus $197,000 Closed 509-char remark

   Show marketing remark (509 chars)

   2017 doublewide offers comfortable country living with modern convenience. The home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a functional, open layout ideal for everyday living. Enjoy the privacy and open space that comes with rural living while still being just minutes from schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Whether you're looking for room to garden, relax outdoors, or simply enjoy a quieter setting, this property provides the perfect balance of country charm and accessibility.

3. 2026-04-13
   status Pending 509-char remark

   Show marketing remark (509 chars)

   2017 doublewide offers comfortable country living with modern convenience. The home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a functional, open layout ideal for everyday living. Enjoy the privacy and open space that comes with rural living while still being just minutes from schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Whether you're looking for room to garden, relax outdoors, or simply enjoy a quieter setting, this property provides the perfect balance of country charm and accessibility.

4. 2026-04-13
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (509 chars)

   2017 doublewide offers comfortable country living with modern convenience. The home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a functional, open layout ideal for everyday living. Enjoy the privacy and open space that comes with rural living while still being just minutes from schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Whether you're looking for room to garden, relax outdoors, or simply enjoy a quieter setting, this property provides the perfect balance of country charm and accessibility.

5. 2026-04-13
   status Pending 509-char remark

   Show marketing remark (509 chars)

   2017 doublewide offers comfortable country living with modern convenience. The home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a functional, open layout ideal for everyday living. Enjoy the privacy and open space that comes with rural living while still being just minutes from schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Whether you're looking for room to garden, relax outdoors, or simply enjoy a quieter setting, this property provides the perfect balance of country charm and accessibility.

6. 2026-02-10
   listed $199,900 Active 509-char remark

   Show marketing remark (509 chars)

   2017 doublewide offers comfortable country living with modern convenience. The home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a functional, open layout ideal for everyday living. Enjoy the privacy and open space that comes with rural living while still being just minutes from schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Whether you're looking for room to garden, relax outdoors, or simply enjoy a quieter setting, this property provides the perfect balance of country charm and accessibility.

7. 2026-02-09
   listed $199,900 Active
8. 2026-02-06
   listed $199,900 Active 509-char remark

   Show marketing remark (509 chars)

   2017 doublewide offers comfortable country living with modern convenience. The home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a functional, open layout ideal for everyday living. Enjoy the privacy and open space that comes with rural living while still being just minutes from schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Whether you're looking for room to garden, relax outdoors, or simply enjoy a quieter setting, this property provides the perfect balance of country charm and accessibility.

9. 2025-12-17
   listed $99,900
10. 2019-09-30
    soldstatus $99,900
11. 2019-09-30
    soldstatus $99,900
12. 2019-09-30
    soldstatus $99,900
13. 2019-06-03
    listed $99,900
14. 2019-05-22
    listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $618 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$801/yr (+$67/mo · 129.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥102°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$618
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,286
• − Management: −$1,286
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$5,128
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,231
• After-tax cash flow: $-268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grainger County
• NCES district ID: 4701440
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $35,163
• Composite: 15.64/100
• National rank: #9289
• State rank: #123 of 139 in TN

Livability — Rutledge

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #281
• US rank: #19814

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rutledge, TN
• Population (ZIP): 8,578

Population outlook (Grainger County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,117 people
• By 2030: 23,037 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 22,435 · -3.0%
• By 2050: 21,236 · -8.1%
• By 2075: 17,595 · -23.9%
• By 2100: 13,157 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grainger

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.7) · D 12.9% · R 86.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.6pp toward R · 2008: -43.1pp · 2024: -73.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.7 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+68.4 2012: R+52.4 2008: R+43.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 100.39%
• Current HPI: 384.7003
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+97.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Sold (MLS) $197,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-05-08 Sold (MLS) $197,000 LAAR
• 2026-04-13 Pending — LAAR
• 2026-04-13 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $199,900 LAAR
• 2026-02-09 Listed $199,900 TVRMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $199,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $99,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-30 Sold (MLS) $99,900 LAAR
• 2019-09-30 Sold (MLS) $99,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2019-09-30 Sold (MLS) $99,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-03 Listed $99,900 LAAR
• 2019-05-22 Listed $99,900 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $618 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.