509 Amish Dr

LeRaysville, PA 18829

$199,500D+

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,176 sqft · Built 1934 · SingleFamily · Pending · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,457/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax + insurance: −$386
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-281/mo
• Annual: $-3,377/yr
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.62%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $55,860

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-281 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (24.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (27.0% below list).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Northeast Bradford SD (rural): math 40% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 539 in PA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northeast Bradford El Sch (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #654 of 1,518 statewide, top 47%, 344 students, 48% FRL); Northeast Bradford Jshs (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #265 of 437 statewide, top 63%, 327 students, 34% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1934 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Bradford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bradford County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $200k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1934 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.