509 Amish Dr · LeRaysville, PA 18829

$199,500

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,176 sqft · SingleFamily · 81 Days on market

Built 1934 5.03 ac lot $92/sqft · 44% below area Est $358k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Farmette in the NEB School District! This charming 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath, two-story home sits on 5.03 acres on a corner lot just outside LeRaysville, only 2 miles from the NEB School. The home offers a unique opportunity to move in and complete updates at your own pace, making it ideal for buyers looking to add personal touches. The spacious kitchen provides ample room for a large island & eat-in dining area. Just off the kitchen is space perfect for a separate dining room, along with a convenient guest half bath. The oversized living room offers plenty of space for entertaining and gathering. A beautiful wood staircase leads to the second floor, where you'll find four generously sized bedrooms & a full bath. Enjoy the privacy and potential of country living with room for gardens, animals, or hobbies—all while remaining close to town & school amenities. OGMs Convey! A great opportunity to own some acreage with space to grow and create the country lifestyle you've been looking for!

Key facts

• Separate dining room
• Spacious kitchen
• Guest half bath

Tags

• 5.03 ACRES
• CORNER LOT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• GUEST HALF BATH
• OVERSIZED LIVING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-281 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (24.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Northeast Bradford SD (rural): math 40% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 539 in PA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northeast Bradford El Sch (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #654 of 1,518 statewide, top 47%, 344 students, 48% FRL); Northeast Bradford Jshs (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #265 of 437 statewide, top 63%, 327 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Bradford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Bradford County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $200k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1934 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,712 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1934 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.62%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $358,240
• List price: $199,500
• Delta: -44.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $7,135
• Equity at exit: $90,737

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $49,425
• Equity at exit: $140,646

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18829

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,457 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,841/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,813

Max offer price $149,783

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-169	-5% $-225	+0% $-281	+5% $-338	+10% $-394
Rent	-10% $-397	-5% $-339	+0% $-281	+5% $-224	+10% $-166
Rate	-1.0pp $-181	-0.5pp $-231	base $-281	+0.5pp $-333	+1.0pp $-386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 1017-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

   Farmette in the NEB School District! This charming 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath, two-story home sits on 5.03 acres on a corner lot just outside LeRaysville, only 2 miles from the NEB School. The home offers a unique opportunity to move in and complete updates at your own pace, making it ideal for buyers looking to add personal touches. The spacious kitchen provides ample room for a large island & eat-in dining area. Just off the kitchen is space perfect for a separate dining room, along with a convenient guest half bath. The oversized living room offers plenty of space for entertaining and gathering. A beautiful wood staircase leads to the second floor, where you'll find four generously sized bedrooms & a full bath. Enjoy the privacy and potential of country living with room for gardens, animals, or hobbies—all while remaining close to town & school amenities. OGMs Convey! A great opportunity to own some acreage with space to grow and create the country lifestyle you've been looking for!

2. 2026-04-11
   price $199,500 1017-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

   Farmette in the NEB School District! This charming 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath, two-story home sits on 5.03 acres on a corner lot just outside LeRaysville, only 2 miles from the NEB School. The home offers a unique opportunity to move in and complete updates at your own pace, making it ideal for buyers looking to add personal touches. The spacious kitchen provides ample room for a large island & eat-in dining area. Just off the kitchen is space perfect for a separate dining room, along with a convenient guest half bath. The oversized living room offers plenty of space for entertaining and gathering. A beautiful wood staircase leads to the second floor, where you'll find four generously sized bedrooms & a full bath. Enjoy the privacy and potential of country living with room for gardens, animals, or hobbies—all while remaining close to town & school amenities. OGMs Convey! A great opportunity to own some acreage with space to grow and create the country lifestyle you've been looking for!

3. 2026-03-07
   price $225,000 1017-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

   Farmette in the NEB School District! This charming 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath, two-story home sits on 5.03 acres on a corner lot just outside LeRaysville, only 2 miles from the NEB School. The home offers a unique opportunity to move in and complete updates at your own pace, making it ideal for buyers looking to add personal touches. The spacious kitchen provides ample room for a large island & eat-in dining area. Just off the kitchen is space perfect for a separate dining room, along with a convenient guest half bath. The oversized living room offers plenty of space for entertaining and gathering. A beautiful wood staircase leads to the second floor, where you'll find four generously sized bedrooms & a full bath. Enjoy the privacy and potential of country living with room for gardens, animals, or hobbies—all while remaining close to town & school amenities. OGMs Convey! A great opportunity to own some acreage with space to grow and create the country lifestyle you've been looking for!

4. 2026-02-13
   listed $230,000 Active 1017-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

   Farmette in the NEB School District! This charming 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath, two-story home sits on 5.03 acres on a corner lot just outside LeRaysville, only 2 miles from the NEB School. The home offers a unique opportunity to move in and complete updates at your own pace, making it ideal for buyers looking to add personal touches. The spacious kitchen provides ample room for a large island & eat-in dining area. Just off the kitchen is space perfect for a separate dining room, along with a convenient guest half bath. The oversized living room offers plenty of space for entertaining and gathering. A beautiful wood staircase leads to the second floor, where you'll find four generously sized bedrooms & a full bath. Enjoy the privacy and potential of country living with room for gardens, animals, or hobbies—all while remaining close to town & school amenities. OGMs Convey! A great opportunity to own some acreage with space to grow and create the country lifestyle you've been looking for!

5. 2018-10-15
   listed $127,000
6. 2015-04-27
   soldstatus $110,000
7. 2015-04-27
   soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,841 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,997 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: +$155/yr (+$13/mo · 5.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$2,841
• − Insurance: −$1,795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,399
• − Management: −$1,399
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable loss: −$6,927
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,663
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,715/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northeast Bradford SD
• NCES district ID: 4217460
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,193
• Composite: 40.29/100
• National rank: #3761
• State rank: #235 of 539 in PA

Livability — LeRaysville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 708
• Population (ZIP): 708

Population outlook (Bradford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,236 people
• By 2030: 54,660 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 49,502 · -13.5%
• By 2050: 44,277 · -22.6%
• By 2075: 33,420 · -41.6%
• By 2100: 22,919 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bradford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.9) · D 25.6% · R 73.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.5pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -47.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.9 2020: R+44.9 2016: R+46.0 2012: R+24.6 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.09%
• Current HPI: 144.9219
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+81.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — NMPA
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $199,500 NMPA
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $225,000 NMPA
• 2026-02-13 Listed $230,000 NMPA
• 2018-10-15 Listed $127,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2015-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2015-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,841 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.