2318 North Fork Rd

Asbury Lake, FL 32043

$289,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,126/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$199
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-35/mo
• Annual: $-415/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $289k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-415/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (26.4% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $213k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#776 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 885 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $289k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.4% in Asbury Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.