2318 North Fork Rd · Asbury Lake, FL 32043

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2000 1.48 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Peaceful living at it's best on a beautiful 1.5 acre lot. Bring your watercrafts and RV! There is a large circular driveway in the front and an additional LARGE driveway and carport(35'x20') to the side of the house. Enjoy entertaining in the backyard which features a patio with built in firepit, a large covered deck with plenty of room to accommodate your outdoor furniture and a large grill. The well manicured yard, is illuminated with beautiful landscape lights. There is a also a 16' x16' 'handy house shed. This 3/2 home features an open floor plan with vinyl plank flooring throughout. There is a pantry closet beside the laundry room which sits off of the kitchen. There is a family room and a separate living room. Both bathrooms have new vanities. There is a fireplace in the living room currently being used for aesthetic purposes. It does not have a chimney. If desired, the new owner can have a chimney installed or an electric heating element can be added. There is an outdoor sink that sits on the deck which makes cooking and entertaining outside convenient. There are 2 large orange trees and the property is fenced in with a privacy gate in the front. The property is lined with trees in the back and sides. This is a must see!

Key facts

• Firepit
• 12 x 16 tool shed
• Protected woodlands

Tags

• 1.52 ACRE PARCEL
• PROTECTED WOODLANDS
• HUGE COVERED DECK
• EXTENDED PATIO
• FIREPIT
• 12 X 16 TOOL SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport (2 spaces); Additional parking; Circular driveway; Other parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Double wide mobile home; One story; Entry level: 1; Single-family use
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Fire pit; Covered porch; Deck; Front porch; Patio; Wire fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub); Split bedroom layout; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in unit; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-170/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Asbury Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#776 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 885 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $289k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,190 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.21%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-53,237
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-69,010
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32043

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 885
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,152 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $938/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,170

Max offer price $286,501

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2732 Woodsdale Dr Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1988	$2,155	$1.08	4d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $289,000 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $289,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $289,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $289,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $289,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-05-19
   listed $289,000 Active
8. 2024-03-05
   historical 1248-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1248 chars)

   Peaceful living at it's best on a beautiful 1.5 acre lot. Bring your watercrafts and RV! There is a large circular driveway in the front and an additional LARGE driveway and carport(35'x20') to the side of the house. Enjoy entertaining in the backyard which features a patio with built in firepit, a large covered deck with plenty of room to accommodate your outdoor furniture and a large grill. The well manicured yard, is illuminated with beautiful landscape lights. There is a also a 16' x16' 'handy house shed. This 3/2 home features an open floor plan with vinyl plank flooring throughout. There is a pantry closet beside the laundry room which sits off of the kitchen. There is a family room and a separate living room. Both bathrooms have new vanities. There is a fireplace in the living room currently being used for aesthetic purposes. It does not have a chimney. If desired, the new owner can have a chimney installed or an electric heating element can be added. There is an outdoor sink that sits on the deck which makes cooking and entertaining outside convenient. There are 2 large orange trees and the property is fenced in with a privacy gate in the front. The property is lined with trees in the back and sides. This is a must see!

9. 2023-11-02
   listed $289,000 Active 1248-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1248 chars)

   Peaceful living at it's best on a beautiful 1.5 acre lot. Bring your watercrafts and RV! There is a large circular driveway in the front and an additional LARGE driveway and carport(35'x20') to the side of the house. Enjoy entertaining in the backyard which features a patio with built in firepit, a large covered deck with plenty of room to accommodate your outdoor furniture and a large grill. The well manicured yard, is illuminated with beautiful landscape lights. There is a also a 16' x16' 'handy house shed. This 3/2 home features an open floor plan with vinyl plank flooring throughout. There is a pantry closet beside the laundry room which sits off of the kitchen. There is a family room and a separate living room. Both bathrooms have new vanities. There is a fireplace in the living room currently being used for aesthetic purposes. It does not have a chimney. If desired, the new owner can have a chimney installed or an electric heating element can be added. There is an outdoor sink that sits on the deck which makes cooking and entertaining outside convenient. There are 2 large orange trees and the property is fenced in with a privacy gate in the front. The property is lined with trees in the back and sides. This is a must see!

10. 2008-04-22
    soldstatus $120,000
11. 2008-03-31
    historical 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Beautiful secluded doublewide mobile home on 1.52 acres, private setting, fenced yard w/shed,New 30yr roof (11/30/07), huge family room w/cozy fireplace, new wood laminate flooring in large living room & dining room, kitchen equipped w/appliances,lots of counter space w/breakfast bar,new vinyl flrs. MBR features his&hers sinks and walkin closets,new flrs.Beautiful!

12. 2008-03-21
    soldstatus $120,000 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Beautiful secluded doublewide mobile home on 1.52 acres, private setting, fenced yard w/shed,New 30yr roof (11/30/07), huge family room w/cozy fireplace, new wood laminate flooring in large living room & dining room, kitchen equipped w/appliances,lots of counter space w/breakfast bar,new vinyl flrs. MBR features his&hers sinks and walkin closets,new flrs.Beautiful!

13. 2007-12-18
    listed $124,999 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Beautiful secluded doublewide mobile home on 1.52 acres, private setting, fenced yard w/shed,New 30yr roof (11/30/07), huge family room w/cozy fireplace, new wood laminate flooring in large living room & dining room, kitchen equipped w/appliances,lots of counter space w/breakfast bar,new vinyl flrs. MBR features his&hers sinks and walkin closets,new flrs.Beautiful!

14. 2007-12-17
    historical
15. 2007-07-30
    listed $128,999
16. 2001-12-06
    historical
17. 2001-09-24
    listed $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $938 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,399 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,460/yr (+$122/mo · 155.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$938
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,066
• − Management: −$2,066
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$5,288
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,269
• After-tax cash flow: $1,099/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Asbury Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #776
• US rank: #17575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,562
• Household income: $84,145
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 449.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.34%
• Current HPI: 301.3212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.46%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+204.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $289,000 realMLS
• 2024-03-05 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2023-11-02 Listed $289,000 realMLS
• 2008-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2008-03-31 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2008-03-21 Sold (MLS) $120,000 realMLS
• 2007-12-18 Listed $124,999 realMLS
• 2007-12-17 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2007-07-30 Listed $128,999 realMLS
• 2001-12-06 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2001-09-24 Listed $95,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $938 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.